Football · Austria Regionalliga Ost · 31/10, 17:00

Prediction: Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 vs Oberwart

Team pages: Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 · Oberwart

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Mattersburger Sportverein 20201.3

Oberwart1.57

1X2

32% 24% 44%

Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 Draw Oberwart

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWLWL

Oberwart 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 0–2 Oberwart (2 last)

Oberwart2-1Mattersburger Sportverein 2020
Mattersburger Sportverein 20200-4Oberwart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 1486 · Oberwart 1591

	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	Draw	Oberwart
Our model	30%	27%	43%
Market	33%	22%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Oberwart (rating 1486 vs 1591).
H2H favours Oberwart: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	Oberwart
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.75

X4.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 3.55 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:29 +15’	2.75	4.00	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:22 +62’	3.73	3.77	1.68
08:27 +3’	3.55▼	3.74▼	1.73▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 0–0–2 Oberwart

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 Austria Amateur Cup	Oberwart	2-1 HT 1-1	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020
25/05/26 Austria Amateur Cup	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	0-4 HT 0-1	Oberwart

Standings · Austria Regionalliga Ost

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Marchfeld Donauauen	13	9	1	3	33	12	28
2	Wiener Sportclub	14	8	3	3	33	17	27
3	Oberwart	13	8	2	3	26	15	26
4	FCM Traiskirchen	14	7	4	3	30	25	25
5	Kremser SC	13	7	2	4	24	19	23
6	SC Wiener Viktoria	13	6	2	5	16	13	20
7	SR Fach-Donaufeld	13	6	2	5	17	17	20
8	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth	13	5	4	4	20	26	19
9	Parndorf	13	5	3	5	21	16	18
10	SV Leobendorf	13	5	3	5	18	16	18
11	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	13	5	1	7	14	19	16
12	SV Donau	13	3	6	4	25	22	15
13	SV Gloggnitz	13	3	5	5	14	21	14
14	Favoritner AC	13	4	1	8	9	18	13
15	SV Horn	13	3	2	8	17	21	11
16	SV Wienerberg	13	0	1	12	7	47	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mattersburger Sportverein 2020	Oberwart
FCM Traiskirchen	1-2 L	1-1 D
SV Horn	1-0 W	3-1 W
FC Marchfeld Donauauen	0-4 L	1-0 W
Parndorf	1-0 W	3-1 W
Kremser SC	0-3 L	1-3 L
SV Donau	2-2 D	0-2 L
SV Leobendorf	1-2 L	1-0 W
SV Wienerberg	3-0 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Oberwart (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mattersburger Sportverein 2020

WWWLDLWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-2	9	4	L
16/10	SV Horn Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/10	FC Marchfeld Donauauen Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
03/10	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
25/09	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-3	0-3	2	5	L
18/09	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-2	2-2	4	10	D
12/09	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
04/09	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
29/08	SR Fach-Donaufeld Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
22/08	USV Scheiblingkirchen-Warth Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	2-0	8	7	W

Oberwart

WWLLWWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Favoritner AC Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
16/10	SV Gloggnitz Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
09/10	FCM Traiskirchen Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
02/10	SV Horn Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	3-1	10	2	W
25/09	FC Marchfeld Donauauen Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
18/09	Parndorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
11/09	Kremser SC Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-3	1-3	4	5	L
04/09	SV Donau Austria Regionalliga Ost	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
29/08	SV Leobendorf Austria Regionalliga Ost	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
21/08	SV Wienerberg Austria Regionalliga Ost	2-1	5-2	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 vs Oberwart?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Oberwart win (44%). Probabilities: Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 32%, draw 24%, Oberwart 44%.

How many goals are expected in Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 vs Oberwart?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 1.3 · Oberwart 1.57), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mattersburger Sportverein 2020 vs Oberwart?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.