Football · France Ligue 3 · 20/08, 20:45

Prediction: Paris 13 Atletico vs Valenciennes

Team pages: Paris 13 Atletico · Valenciennes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Paris 13 Atletico0.92

Valenciennes1.21

1X2

27% 31% 42%

Paris 13 Atletico Draw Valenciennes

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Paris 13 Atletico 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWLDWWL

Valenciennes 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDWDWDLW

Head-to-head

Paris 13 Atletico 0–3–1 Valenciennes (4 last)

Paris 13 Atletico1-1Valenciennes
Valenciennes1-0Paris 13 Atletico
Paris 13 Atletico1-1Valenciennes
Valenciennes1-1Paris 13 Atletico

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris 13 Atletico 1497 · Valenciennes 1517

	Paris 13 Atletico	Draw	Valenciennes
Our model	27%	32%	41%
Market	28%	30%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paris 13 Atletico	Valenciennes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.46 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.22
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
06:06 +9’	3.30	3.10	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +1’	3.07	3.22	2.33
22:05 +2’	3.46▲	3.22	2.14▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris 13 Atletico 0–3–1 Valenciennes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 France Ligue 3	Paris 13 Atletico	1-1 HT 1-1	Valenciennes
12/09/25 France Ligue 3	Valenciennes	1-0 HT 0-0	Paris 13 Atletico
02/05/25 France Ligue 3	Paris 13 Atletico	1-1 HT 1-0	Valenciennes
10/01/25 France Ligue 3	Valenciennes	1-1 HT 1-1	Paris 13 Atletico

Standings · France Ligue 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Thionville FC	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
2	La Roche VF	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Rouen	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Caen	2	1	0	1	7	4	3
5	Villefranche	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
6	Le Puy	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	Versailles 78	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
8	Bourg-Peronnas	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
9	Valenciennes	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
10	US Orleans 45	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Paris 13 Atletico	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
11	SC Bastia	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
13	Cannes	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
13	FC Fleury 91	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
15	US Quevilly	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
16	Concarneau	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Amiens	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Aubagne Air Bel	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Paris 13 Atletico

DDLWWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Villefranche France Ligue 3	0-2	0-2	2	8	L
07/08	US Quevilly France Ligue 3	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
31/07	US Lusitanos Saint-Maur Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
28/07	Creteil Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-2	3	5	D
18/07	US Orleans 45 Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	9	0	L
15/07	Caen Europe Friendlies	3-0	4-3	4	0	W
11/07	Amiens Europe Friendlies	3-1	4-2	1	0	W
15/05	US Quevilly France Ligue 3	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
09/05	Aubagne Air Bel France Ligue 3	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
30/04	Concarneau France Ligue 3	0-0	0-0	2	3	D

Valenciennes

LDLDWDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Bourg-Peronnas France Ligue 3	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
07/08	Caen France Ligue 3	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
31/07	Boulogne Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/07	Eastleigh Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
18/07	KV Kortrijk Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
04/07	Dunkerque Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-0	3	0	W
15/05	Chateauroux France Ligue 3	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
09/05	Bourg-Peronnas France Ligue 3	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
02/05	Sochaux France Ligue 3	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
24/04	Dijon France Ligue 3	0-0	0-1	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris 13 Atletico vs Valenciennes?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Valenciennes win (42%). Probabilities: Paris 13 Atletico 27%, draw 31%, Valenciennes 42%.

How many goals are expected in Paris 13 Atletico vs Valenciennes?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Paris 13 Atletico 0.92 · Valenciennes 1.21), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Paris 13 Atletico vs Valenciennes?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.