Football · France Ligue 3 · 24/09, 20:45
Prediction: Caen vs Rouen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Caen1.05
Rouen1.21
1X2
Caen
Draw
Rouen
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Caen
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Rouen
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Caen
0–2–0
Rouen
(2 last)
- Rouen1-1Caen
- Caen1-1Rouen
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rouen (rating 1529 vs 1609).
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Caen | Rouen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 1.8 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/11/22% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.8 | 3.4 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Caen 0–2–0 Rouen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/26 France Ligue 3 | Rouen | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Caen |
| 21/10/25 France Ligue 3 | Caen | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Rouen |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Caen | Rouen |
|---|---|---|
| Aubagne Air Bel | 1-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Thionville FC | 3-4 L | 4-0 W |
| Valenciennes | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Villefranche | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Caen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Paris 13 Atletico France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 05/09 | Bourg-Peronnas France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 27/08 | SC Bastia France Ligue 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 20/08 | Aubagne Air Bel France Ligue 3 |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/08 | Thionville FC France Ligue 3 |
2-1 | 3-4 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 07/08 | Valenciennes France Ligue 3 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 15/05 | Aubagne Air Bel France Ligue 3 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Concarneau France Ligue 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | Villefranche France Ligue 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 17/04 | Bourg-Peronnas France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Rouen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Thionville FC France Ligue 3 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 04/09 | Valenciennes France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Villefranche France Ligue 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 20/08 | US Quevilly France Ligue 3 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 14/08 | US Orleans 45 France Ligue 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 07/08 | Cannes France Ligue 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/05 | FC Fleury 91 France Ligue 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Versailles 78 France Ligue 3 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 13 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | US Quevilly France Ligue 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Aubagne Air Bel France Ligue 3 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Caen vs Rouen?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Rouen win (39%). Probabilities: Caen 30%, draw 31%, Rouen 39%.
How many goals are expected in Caen vs Rouen?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Caen 1.05 · Rouen 1.21), with a 60% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Rouen?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.