Football · Poland III Liga · 30/10, 13:00

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Polonia Lidzbark

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok II · Polonia Lidzbark

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok II1.92

Polonia Lidzbark1.48

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Jagiellonia Bialystok II Draw Polonia Lidzbark

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLDLLD

Polonia Lidzbark 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWLLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok II 2–0 Polonia Lidzbark (2 last)

Polonia Lidzbark0-3Jagiellonia Bialystok II
Jagiellonia Bialystok II4-1Polonia Lidzbark

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1459 · Polonia Lidzbark 1508

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Draw	Polonia Lidzbark
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Lidzbark (rating 1459 vs 1508).
H2H favours Jagiellonia Bialystok II: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Polonia Lidzbark
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	1.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:45 +22’	1.91	3.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok II 2–0–0 Polonia Lidzbark

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/25 Poland III Liga	Polonia Lidzbark	0-3 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok II
02/11/24 Poland III Liga	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	4-1 HT 3-1	Polonia Lidzbark

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
5	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
6	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	28	33	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok II	Polonia Lidzbark
LKS Lodz II	2-3 L	3-0 W
Mlawianka Mlawa	7-4 W	2-3 L
LKS Lomza	2-1 W	3-2 W
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	1-1 D	2-1 W
KTS Weszlo	0-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Polonia Lidzbark (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok II

LDWWLLDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/10	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
14/10	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
10/10	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	8	3	D
25/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	3	2	L
19/09	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
12/09	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	2-2	7-4	6	5	W
05/09	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
29/08	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
23/08	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	4	5	L

Polonia Lidzbark

LDWLLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	LKS Lodz II Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
17/10	Mlawianka Mlawa Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
10/10	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
03/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
26/09	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
12/09	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
06/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
29/08	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
23/08	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-4	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Polonia Lidzbark?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok II win (47%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok II 47%, draw 24%, Polonia Lidzbark 29%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok II 1.92 · Polonia Lidzbark 1.48), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok II vs Polonia Lidzbark?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.