Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: Polonia Lidzbark vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Polonia Lidzbark1.8

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1.79

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Polonia Lidzbark Draw MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Polonia Lidzbark 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Polonia Lidzbark 0–1–1 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki (2 last)

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki1-1Polonia Lidzbark
Polonia Lidzbark1-2MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polonia Lidzbark 1548 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1462

	Polonia Lidzbark	Draw	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Our model	38%	24%	38%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Polonia Lidzbark (rating 1548 vs 1462).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polonia Lidzbark	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.7 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.8	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:16 +15’	2.38	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polonia Lidzbark 0–1–1 MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/25 Poland III Liga	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	1-1 HT 1-1	Polonia Lidzbark
12/10/24 Poland III Liga	Polonia Lidzbark	1-2 HT 0-0	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Polonia Lidzbark

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Olimpia Elblag Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
13/06	Granica Ketrzyn Poland IV Liga	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
06/06	Sokol Ostroda Poland IV Liga	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
30/05	Stomil Olsztyn Poland IV Liga	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
09/05	Mragowia Mragowo Poland IV Liga	0-1	4-1	8	0	W
06/05	Pisa Barczewo Poland IV Liga	1-1	4-1	8	4	W
11/04	DKS Dobre Miasto Poland IV Liga	2-1	2-1	6	9	W
25/10	Stomil Olsztyn Poland IV Liga	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
19/09	Start Nidzica Poland IV Liga	0-1	1-1	19	3	D
12/09	Mamry Gizycko Poland IV Liga	1-2	2-3	5	4	L

MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Pelikan Lowicz Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-2	8	2	L
30/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
23/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
17/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
13/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-0	3-2	3	2	W
09/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
03/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	2-1	2-4	5	5	L
26/04	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
18/04	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-0	3-3	0	12	D
11/04	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polonia Lidzbark vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polonia Lidzbark win (38%). Probabilities: Polonia Lidzbark 38%, draw 24%, MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 38%.

How many goals are expected in Polonia Lidzbark vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Polonia Lidzbark 1.8 · MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki 1.79), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Polonia Lidzbark vs MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.