Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 18:00

Prediction: Warta Sieradz vs Mlawianka Mlawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Warta Sieradz1.98

Mlawianka Mlawa1.15

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Warta Sieradz Draw Mlawianka Mlawa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Warta Sieradz 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDDWWW

Mlawianka Mlawa 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Warta Sieradz 4–2 Mlawianka Mlawa (6 last)

Mlawianka Mlawa2-3Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz3-0Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa4-0Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz2-0Mlawianka Mlawa
Warta Sieradz0-2Mlawianka Mlawa
Mlawianka Mlawa1-3Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warta Sieradz 1568 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1518

	Warta Sieradz	Draw	Mlawianka Mlawa
Our model	56%	24%	21%
Market	56%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warta Sieradz (rating 1568 vs 1518).
H2H favours Warta Sieradz: 4-0-2.
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warta Sieradz	Mlawianka Mlawa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.1	3.8 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:22 +8’	1.60	4.00	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warta Sieradz 4–0–2 Mlawianka Mlawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	2-3 HT 1-1	Warta Sieradz
15/08/25 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	3-0 HT 2-0	Mlawianka Mlawa
24/05/25 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	4-0 HT 1-0	Warta Sieradz
02/11/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	2-0 HT 1-0	Mlawianka Mlawa
08/06/24 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	0-2 HT 0-0	Mlawianka Mlawa
18/11/23 Poland III Liga	Mlawianka Mlawa	1-3 HT 0-0	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warta Sieradz	Mlawianka Mlawa
Bron Radom	1-0 W	3-2 W
Wigry Suwalki	2-1 W	0-2 L
GKS Wikielec	1-1 D	1-2 L
Jagiellonia Bialystok II	3-3 D	0-1 L
Znicz Biala Piska	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Warta Sieradz

LDWDWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/07	LKS Lodz II Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	10	6	W
17/05	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
13/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/04	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	1-3	3-3	6	6	D
25/04	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	0-2	3-3	3	3	D
10/04	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	12	6	L

Mlawianka Mlawa

LWWWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Hutnik Warsaw Europe Friendlies	2-1	4-2	7	4	W
30/05	LKS Lomza Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	3	6	W
17/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/05	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	11	4	L
09/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L
01/05	Bron Radom Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	10	5	W
25/04	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/04	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/04	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	14	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warta Sieradz vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warta Sieradz win (56%). Probabilities: Warta Sieradz 56%, draw 23%, Mlawianka Mlawa 21%.

How many goals are expected in Warta Sieradz vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Warta Sieradz 1.98 · Mlawianka Mlawa 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Warta Sieradz vs Mlawianka Mlawa?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.