Football · Poland III Liga · 21/10, 17:30

Prediction: Widzew Lodz II vs Warta Sieradz

Team pages: Widzew Lodz II · Warta Sieradz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Widzew Lodz II1.73

Warta Sieradz1.7

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Widzew Lodz II Draw Warta Sieradz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Widzew Lodz II 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLDLD

Warta Sieradz 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWDDLW

Head-to-head

Widzew Lodz II 1–1 Warta Sieradz (2 last)

Warta Sieradz1-2Widzew Lodz II
Widzew Lodz II1-3Warta Sieradz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Widzew Lodz II 1472 · Warta Sieradz 1493

	Widzew Lodz II	Draw	Warta Sieradz
Our model	38%	24%	37%
Market	39%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Widzew Lodz II	Warta Sieradz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.75

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	3.70 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	2.40 → 2.38▼	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:56 +9’	2.30	3.70	2.40
17:01 +1’	2.30	3.75▲	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:56 +7’	2.30	3.31	2.58
10:56 +6’	2.47▲	3.12▼	2.51▼
11:57 +5’	2.46▼	3.09▼	2.50▼
12:49 +13’	2.40▼	3.05▼	2.46▼
13:35 +28’	2.44▲	3.12▲	2.50▲
14:42 +21’	2.43▼	3.15▲	2.49▼
15:35 +27’	2.47▲	3.15	2.53▲
16:39 +22’	2.40▼	3.40▲	2.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Widzew Lodz II 1–0–1 Warta Sieradz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Poland III Liga	Warta Sieradz	1-2 HT 1-1	Widzew Lodz II
31/08/25 Poland III Liga	Widzew Lodz II	1-3 HT 1-1	Warta Sieradz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	13	9	4	0	20	6	31
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	13	7	5	1	24	10	26
3	Wisloka Debica	13	8	2	3	20	13	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	13	7	2	4	28	25	23
5	Wislanie Jaskowice	13	6	3	4	20	13	21
6	Czarni Polaniec	13	6	3	4	18	17	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	25	22	20
8	JKS Jaroslaw	13	5	2	6	29	25	17
9	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	13	5	2	6	19	19	17
10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	13	3	7	3	13	13	16
11	Wisla Krakow II	13	4	4	5	15	18	16
12	Wieczysta Krakow II	13	4	3	6	12	15	15
13	Star Starachowice	13	3	5	5	18	20	14
14	Korona Kielce II	13	4	2	7	28	31	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	13	4	2	7	19	30	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	13	3	4	6	11	18	13
17	Moravia Morawica	13	2	3	8	13	23	9
18	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	13	2	2	9	12	26	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Widzew Lodz II	Warta Sieradz
Wigry Suwalki	3-6 L	1-3 L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki	2-3 L	1-1 D
Wisla Plock II	0-2 L	2-1 W
Olimpia Zambrow	4-3 W	2-2 D
Polonia Lidzbark	4-1 W	2-1 W
Olimpia Elblag	2-0 W	4-1 W
MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Warta Sieradz (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Widzew Lodz II

DWWWLLLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
11/10	KTS Weszlo Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
03/10	Pelikan Lowicz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	0	7	D
20/09	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	2-3	3-6	–	–	L
11/09	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	2	2	L
06/09	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
30/08	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/08	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
19/08	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	7	6	W
15/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Warta Sieradz

DWLLWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
09/10	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
03/10	Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
19/09	Olimpia Zambrow Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
12/09	Polonia Lidzbark Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
04/09	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	6	2	W
29/08	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-4	8	2	L
19/08	CK Troszyn Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
15/08	Jagiellonia Bialystok II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Widzew Lodz II vs Warta Sieradz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Widzew Lodz II win (39%). Probabilities: Widzew Lodz II 39%, draw 24%, Warta Sieradz 37%.

How many goals are expected in Widzew Lodz II vs Warta Sieradz?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Widzew Lodz II 1.73 · Warta Sieradz 1.7), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Widzew Lodz II vs Warta Sieradz?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.