Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 13:30

Prediction: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Chelmianka Chelm

Team pages: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj · Chelmianka Chelm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj0.8

Chelmianka Chelm2.17

1X2

12% 19% 69%

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Draw Chelmianka Chelm

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLWLLL

Chelmianka Chelm 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWDWDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 1457 · Chelmianka Chelm 1572

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Draw	Chelmianka Chelm
Our model	12%	21%	68%
Market	13%	18%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmianka Chelm (rating 1457 vs 1572).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Chelmianka Chelm
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	1.4 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.00

21.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.95

2 (-1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +3’	7.00	5.00	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	Chelmianka Chelm
Czarni Polaniec	1-2 L	0-0 D
Hetman Zamosc	2-4 L	2-2 D
KSZO Ostrowiec	0-5 L	0-0 D
Wisla Krakow II	3-0 W	2-0 W
Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-4 L	2-0 W
Korona Kielce II	1-4 L	2-0 W
Star Starachowice	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmianka Chelm (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj

DLWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
18/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-1	2-4	4	4	L
10/10	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
04/10	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
26/09	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	8	5	L
19/09	Moravia Morawica Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
12/09	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	10	9	L
06/09	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	8	W
29/08	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Chelmianka Chelm

WWWDDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/10	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
26/09	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
29/08	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
23/08	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	2-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Chelmianka Chelm?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmianka Chelm win (69%). Probabilities: AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 12%, draw 19%, Chelmianka Chelm 69%.

How many goals are expected in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Chelmianka Chelm?

The model expects 2.96 goals (AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj 0.8 · Chelmianka Chelm 2.17), with a 56% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj vs Chelmianka Chelm?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.