Football · Poland III Liga · 31/07, 17:00

Prediction: Olimpia Elblag vs Wisla Plock II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Olimpia Elblag1.53

Wisla Plock II1.38

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Olimpia Elblag Draw Wisla Plock II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Elblag 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDLWWD

Wisla Plock II 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDDDWW

Head-to-head

Olimpia Elblag 1–1–0 Wisla Plock II (2 last)

Wisla Plock II1-1Olimpia Elblag
Olimpia Elblag2-1Wisla Plock II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Elblag 1490 · Wisla Plock II 1508

	Olimpia Elblag	Draw	Wisla Plock II
Our model	40%	27%	33%
Market	41%	25%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Elblag	Wisla Plock II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	3.1 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.60

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:01 +4’	3.00	3.60	2.00
08:57 +7’	2.20▼	3.60	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Elblag 1–1–0 Wisla Plock II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Poland III Liga	Wisla Plock II	1-1 HT 0-0	Olimpia Elblag
02/11/25 Poland III Liga	Olimpia Elblag	2-1 HT 0-1	Wisla Plock II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Elblag	Wisla Plock II
Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki	0-0 D	2-2 D
Widzew Lodz II	0-3 L	0-1 L
GKS Belchatow	1-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wisla Plock II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Olimpia Elblag

LLLDLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Wda Swiecie Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
15/07	Polonia Lidzbark Europe Friendlies	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
11/07	Gedania Gdansk Europe Friendlies	1-0	4-0	7	4	W
07/07	Chojniczanka Chojnice Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
30/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	Znicz Biala Piska Poland III Liga	2-3	2-3	7	12	L
17/05	Wisla Plock II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
13/05	Wigry Suwalki Poland III Liga	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
10/05	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
02/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L

Wisla Plock II

WLWLLDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	GKS Belchatow Poland III Liga	1-0	4-1	6	2	W
23/05	MKS Swit Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
17/05	Olimpia Elblag Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
13/05	Warta Sieradz Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	11	6	D
09/05	Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki Poland III Liga	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
30/04	Widzew Lodz II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
25/04	KS Wasilkow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
18/04	GKS Wikielec Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	1	9	W
15/04	Legia Warsaw II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	0	5	L
11/04	Zabkovia Zabki Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Elblag vs Wisla Plock II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Elblag win (40%). Probabilities: Olimpia Elblag 40%, draw 26%, Wisla Plock II 34%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Elblag vs Wisla Plock II?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Olimpia Elblag 1.53 · Wisla Plock II 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Elblag vs Wisla Plock II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.