Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 12:00

Prediction: Zaglebie Lubin II vs Sparta Katowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Zaglebie Lubin II1.71

Sparta Katowice1.6

1X2

40% 25% 35%

Zaglebie Lubin II Draw Sparta Katowice

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Zaglebie Lubin II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLLL

Sparta Katowice 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Zaglebie Lubin II 1–1–0 Sparta Katowice (2 last)

Zaglebie Lubin II2-0Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice3-3Zaglebie Lubin II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zaglebie Lubin II 1440 · Sparta Katowice 1517

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Draw	Sparta Katowice
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sparta Katowice (rating 1440 vs 1517).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zaglebie Lubin II	Sparta Katowice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.4	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.1	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +7’	2.25	3.60	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zaglebie Lubin II 1–1–0 Sparta Katowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/11/25 Poland III Liga	Zaglebie Lubin II	2-0 HT 1-0	Sparta Katowice
02/08/25 Poland III Liga	Sparta Katowice	3-3 HT 1-0	Zaglebie Lubin II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zaglebie Lubin II	Sparta Katowice
Karkonosze Jelenia Gora	0-4 L	3-1 W
LZS Starowice Dolne	5-0 W	1-2 L
Slowianin Woliborz	1-2 L	1-0 W
Gornik Zabrze II	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sparta Katowice (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Zaglebie Lubin II

LWLWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Odra Bytom Odrzanski Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
11/07	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Europe Friendlies	0-3	0-4	9	1	L
30/05	LKS Goczalkowice Zdroj Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	4	4	L
22/05	Miedz Legnica II Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	9	8	L
15/05	Warta Gorzow Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	1	1	W
12/05	Carina Gubin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
08/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
01/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Sleza Wroclaw Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
18/04	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-5	8	3	L

Sparta Katowice

LLWDWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/07	GKS Tychy 71 Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	3	5	D
24/05	Polonia Nysa Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	–	–	W
16/05	Skra Czestochowa Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
13/05	LZS Starowice Dolne Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Slowianin Woliborz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/04	Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/04	Lechia Zielona Góra Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
18/04	Karkonosze Jelenia Gora Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
11/04	MKS Kluczbork Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
02/04	Gornik Zabrze II Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	9	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Sparta Katowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zaglebie Lubin II win (40%). Probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin II 40%, draw 25%, Sparta Katowice 35%.

How many goals are expected in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Sparta Katowice?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Zaglebie Lubin II 1.71 · Sparta Katowice 1.6), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin II vs Sparta Katowice?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.