Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 05/09, 13:00

Prediction: Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg

Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Nurnberg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Holstein Kiel1.58

Nurnberg1.45

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Holstein Kiel Draw Nurnberg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Holstein Kiel 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Nurnberg 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Holstein Kiel 3–1–2 Nurnberg (6 last)

Holstein Kiel2-3Nurnberg
Nurnberg1-1Holstein Kiel
Nurnberg0-4Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel0-2Nurnberg
Holstein Kiel2-1Nurnberg
Nurnberg2-3Holstein Kiel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Holstein Kiel 1500 · Nurnberg 1618

	Holstein Kiel	Draw	Nurnberg
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nurnberg (rating 1500 vs 1618).
H2H favours Holstein Kiel: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holstein Kiel	Nurnberg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.75

Line ⓘ

Over 32.01

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.44
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.81

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +2’	2.35	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:21 +1’	2.38	3.51	2.83
12:18 +1’	2.44▲	3.55▲	2.81▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holstein Kiel 3–1–2 Nurnberg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-3 HT 2-2	Nurnberg
19/10/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Nurnberg	1-1 HT 1-0	Holstein Kiel
06/04/24 Germany Bundesliga II	Nurnberg	0-4 HT 0-3	Holstein Kiel
29/10/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	0-2 HT 0-0	Nurnberg
15/04/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-1 HT 2-0	Nurnberg
09/10/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Nurnberg	2-3 HT 1-0	Holstein Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nurnberg	3	3	0	0	11	3	9
2	Hertha Berlin	3	3	0	0	10	4	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	10	10	6
5	Magdeburg	3	2	0	1	6	6	6
6	Kaiserslautern	3	1	2	0	2	1	5
7	Greuther Furth	3	1	1	1	7	8	4
8	Karlsruher SC	3	1	1	1	4	6	4
9	Eintracht Braunschweig	3	1	0	2	9	7	3
10	Arminia Bielefeld	3	1	0	2	5	6	3
11	Bochum	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
12	Cottbus	3	1	0	2	6	8	3
13	Hannover 96	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
14	VfL Osnabruck	3	1	0	2	4	7	3
15	Dynamo Dresden	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
16	St Pauli	3	0	2	1	4	5	2
17	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
18	Darmstadt	3	0	1	2	2	4	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holstein Kiel	Nurnberg
Magdeburg	0-2 L	1-0 W
Dynamo Dresden	1-2 L	3-0 W
Eintracht Braunschweig	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nurnberg (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holstein Kiel

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/05	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
09/05	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
02/05	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
25/04	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
17/04	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	3-0	5	3	W
10/04	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
05/04	SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-0	11	6	D

Nurnberg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	4-1	3	2	W
15/08	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	2-2	4-2	3	5	W
09/08	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
17/05	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	3-3	7	8	D
09/05	Schalke Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
03/05	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
26/04	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
18/04	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
11/04	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
05/04	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Holstein Kiel win (39%). Probabilities: Holstein Kiel 39%, draw 27%, Nurnberg 34%.

How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Holstein Kiel 1.58 · Nurnberg 1.45), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.