Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 11/09, 18:30

Prediction: Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld

Team pages: Darmstadt · Arminia Bielefeld

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Darmstadt1.95

Arminia Bielefeld1.93

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Darmstadt Draw Arminia Bielefeld

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Darmstadt 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Arminia Bielefeld 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Darmstadt 0–2–4 Arminia Bielefeld (6 last)

Arminia Bielefeld2-1Darmstadt
Darmstadt2-2Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld3-1Darmstadt
Darmstadt1-1Arminia Bielefeld
Arminia Bielefeld1-0Darmstadt
Darmstadt1-3Arminia Bielefeld

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arminia Bielefeld (rating 1510 vs 1562).
H2H favours Arminia Bielefeld: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.4	3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:47

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.81 → 2.74▼	Pinn 2.74
X	3.74 → 3.77▲	Pinn 3.77
2	2.36 → 2.39▲	Pinn 2.39

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +121’	2.81	3.74	2.36
01:16 +65’	2.82▲	3.73▼	2.35▼
14:41 +67’	2.74▼	3.77▲	2.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Darmstadt 0–2–4 Arminia Bielefeld

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	2-1 HT 0-1	Darmstadt
01/11/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Darmstadt	2-2 HT 2-1	Arminia Bielefeld
11/03/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	3-1 HT 0-0	Darmstadt
04/09/22 Germany Bundesliga II	Darmstadt	1-1 HT 1-0	Arminia Bielefeld
18/06/20 Germany Bundesliga II	Arminia Bielefeld	1-0 HT 0-0	Darmstadt
01/12/19 Germany Bundesliga II	Darmstadt	1-3 HT 0-0	Arminia Bielefeld

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	4	4	0	0	12	5	12
2	Nurnberg	4	3	1	0	13	5	10
3	Heidenheim	4	3	0	1	11	10	9
4	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
5	Kaiserslautern	4	2	2	0	5	1	8
6	Bochum	4	2	0	2	3	3	6
7	Magdeburg	4	2	0	2	7	8	6
7	VfL Osnabruck	4	2	0	2	7	8	6
9	Karlsruher SC	4	1	2	1	6	8	5
10	Arminia Bielefeld	4	1	1	2	7	8	4
11	Cottbus	4	1	1	2	10	12	4
12	Greuther Furth	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
13	Hannover 96	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
14	Eintracht Braunschweig	4	1	0	3	10	10	3
15	St Pauli	4	0	3	1	6	7	3
16	Holstein Kiel	4	0	3	1	6	8	3
17	Dynamo Dresden	4	1	0	3	5	10	3
18	Darmstadt	4	0	1	3	2	7	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Darmstadt	Arminia Bielefeld
SC Preussen Munster	1-1 D	3-2 W
Karlsruher SC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Arminia Bielefeld (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Darmstadt

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
16/08	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
08/08	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
17/05	Paderborn Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
10/05	SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	7	5	D
03/05	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
25/04	Elversberg Germany Bundesliga II	2-3	3-3	5	5	D
19/04	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-3	3	4	L
11/04	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
04/04	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-2	4	7	L

Arminia Bielefeld

LDWDLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
29/08	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-3	1-4	8	2	L
16/08	Cottbus Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
08/08	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	6-1	9	3	W
08/05	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
02/05	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
25/04	SC Preussen Munster Germany Bundesliga II	3-1	3-2	1	3	W
18/04	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
10/04	Karlsruher SC Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-4	13	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Darmstadt win (39%). Probabilities: Darmstadt 39%, draw 23%, Arminia Bielefeld 38%.

How many goals are expected in Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Darmstadt 1.95 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.93), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Darmstadt vs Arminia Bielefeld?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.