Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 16/10, 18:30

Prediction: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin

Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Hertha Berlin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Holstein Kiel1.26

Hertha Berlin1.7

1X2

27% 26% 47%

Holstein Kiel Draw Hertha Berlin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Holstein Kiel 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLDLDL

Hertha Berlin 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Holstein Kiel 2–1–2 Hertha Berlin (5 last)

Hertha Berlin0-1Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel0-1Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin2-2Holstein Kiel
Holstein Kiel2-3Hertha Berlin
Hertha Berlin1-3Holstein Kiel

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hertha Berlin (rating 1474 vs 1595).
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Holstein Kiel	Hertha Berlin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.6	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.94

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:56

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.69 → 2.82▲	Pinn 2.82
X	4.02 → 4.02	Pinn 4.02
2	2.34 → 2.24▼	Pinn 2.24

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:46 +44’	2.69	4.02	2.34
16:51 +65’	2.82▲	4.02	2.24▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Holstein Kiel 2–1–2 Hertha Berlin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Hertha Berlin	0-1 HT 0-0	Holstein Kiel
29/11/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	0-1 HT 0-0	Hertha Berlin
01/03/24 Germany Bundesliga II	Hertha Berlin	2-2 HT 2-0	Holstein Kiel
24/09/23 Germany Bundesliga II	Holstein Kiel	2-3 HT 0-2	Hertha Berlin
21/03/19 Europe Friendlies	Hertha Berlin	1-3 HT 1-2	Holstein Kiel

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	6	6	0	0	17	7	18
2	Nurnberg	7	5	2	0	20	10	17
3	Heidenheim	7	4	2	1	14	12	14
4	Magdeburg	7	4	1	2	14	9	13
5	Wolfsburg	7	3	3	1	19	12	12
6	Kaiserslautern	7	3	3	1	6	4	12
7	Cottbus	7	2	2	3	15	16	8
8	VfL Osnabruck	7	2	2	3	10	13	8
9	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	2	1	4	13	13	7
10	St Pauli	6	1	4	1	8	8	7
11	Bochum	6	2	1	3	5	6	7
12	Hannover 96	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
13	Darmstadt	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
14	Greuther Furth	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
15	Arminia Bielefeld	6	1	2	3	10	12	5
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	1	2	4	9	15	5
17	Karlsruher SC	6	1	2	3	6	12	5
18	Holstein Kiel	7	0	4	3	7	11	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Holstein Kiel	Hertha Berlin
Eintracht Braunschweig	0-1 L	5-3 W
VfL Osnabruck	1-1 D	3-1 W
Heidenheim	0-1 L	4-1 W
Magdeburg	0-2 L	2-1 W
Dynamo Dresden	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hertha Berlin (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Holstein Kiel

WLLDDLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/09	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	10	7	D
13/09	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
05/09	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	10	7	D
30/08	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-2	3	9	L
14/08	St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
17/05	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-2	9	5	L
09/05	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	1-3	10	4	L
02/05	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Hertha Berlin

LWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
19/09	Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
13/09	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	3-1	5	4	W
06/09	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
28/08	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	2-2	5-3	12	6	W
15/08	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
07/08	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
17/05	Arminia Bielefeld Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-6	2	3	L
10/05	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
03/05	Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hertha Berlin win (47%). Probabilities: Holstein Kiel 27%, draw 26%, Hertha Berlin 47%.

How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Holstein Kiel 1.26 · Hertha Berlin 1.7), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.