Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 18/10, 13:30

Prediction: Dynamo Dresden vs Magdeburg

Team pages: Dynamo Dresden · Magdeburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Dynamo Dresden1.55

Magdeburg1.51

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Dynamo Dresden Draw Magdeburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Dynamo Dresden 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Magdeburg 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dynamo Dresden 3–2–1 Magdeburg (6 last)

Magdeburg1-2Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden1-2Magdeburg
Dynamo Dresden2-2Magdeburg
Magdeburg0-1Dynamo Dresden
Dynamo Dresden1-0Magdeburg
Dynamo Dresden1-1Magdeburg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dynamo Dresden 1492 · Magdeburg 1559

	Dynamo Dresden	Draw	Magdeburg
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Magdeburg (rating 1492 vs 1559).
H2H favours Dynamo Dresden: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dynamo Dresden	Magdeburg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.9	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.55 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.64
2	2.50 → 2.55▲	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:15 +6’	2.45	3.60	2.50
16:23 +6’	2.45	3.60	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:59 +445’	2.53	3.71	2.61
10:35 +38’	2.55▲	3.64▼	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dynamo Dresden 3–2–1 Magdeburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Germany Bundesliga II	Magdeburg	1-2 HT 1-2	Dynamo Dresden
09/08/25 Germany Bundesliga II	Dynamo Dresden	1-2 HT 1-2	Magdeburg
06/01/24 Club Friendly List	Dynamo Dresden	2-2 HT 1-0	Magdeburg
06/02/21 Germany 3. Liga	Magdeburg	0-1 HT 0-0	Dynamo Dresden
10/10/20 Germany 3. Liga	Dynamo Dresden	1-0 HT 0-0	Magdeburg
16/03/19 Germany Bundesliga II	Dynamo Dresden	1-1 HT 0-1	Magdeburg

Standings · Germany Bundesliga II

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hertha Berlin	7	7	0	0	19	8	21
2	Nurnberg	7	5	2	0	20	10	17
3	Heidenheim	7	4	2	1	14	12	14
4	Magdeburg	7	4	1	2	14	9	13
5	Wolfsburg	7	3	3	1	19	12	12
6	Kaiserslautern	7	3	3	1	6	4	12
7	St Pauli	7	2	4	1	10	8	10
8	Cottbus	7	2	2	3	15	16	8
9	Arminia Bielefeld	7	2	2	3	11	12	8
10	VfL Osnabruck	7	2	2	3	10	13	8
11	Eintracht Braunschweig	7	2	1	4	13	13	7
12	Bochum	7	2	1	4	5	7	7
13	Hannover 96	7	2	1	4	7	12	7
14	Darmstadt	7	2	1	4	8	14	7
15	Greuther Furth	7	1	3	3	10	13	6
16	Dynamo Dresden	7	1	2	4	9	15	5
17	Karlsruher SC	7	1	2	4	6	14	5
18	Holstein Kiel	7	0	4	3	7	11	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dynamo Dresden	Magdeburg
VfL Osnabruck	1-1 D	3-0 W
Hertha Berlin	1-2 L	1-2 L
Eintracht Braunschweig	2-2 D	1-6 L
Holstein Kiel	2-1 W	2-0 W
Kaiserslautern	1-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Magdeburg (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dynamo Dresden

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-1	10	9	D
19/09	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
12/09	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
05/09	Bochum Germany Bundesliga II	1-2	1-2	8	8	L
29/08	Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	3-5	9	5	L
16/08	Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
09/08	Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
17/05	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	2-1	3	5	W
09/05	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
02/05	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Magdeburg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hannover 96 Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	9	3	W
18/09	Greuther Furth Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
06/09	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
30/08	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	2-0	3	9	W
15/08	VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-0	10	2	W
08/08	Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II	0-4	1-6	5	6	L
17/05	Kaiserslautern Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
09/05	Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
03/05	Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II	0-0	1-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dynamo Dresden vs Magdeburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dynamo Dresden win (38%). Probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 38%, draw 26%, Magdeburg 36%.

How many goals are expected in Dynamo Dresden vs Magdeburg?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Dynamo Dresden 1.55 · Magdeburg 1.51), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs Magdeburg?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.