Football · Germany Bundesliga II · 25/10, 13:30
Prediction: Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
Team pages: Holstein Kiel · Dynamo Dresden
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Holstein Kiel1.53
Dynamo Dresden1.35
1X2
Holstein Kiel
Draw
Dynamo Dresden
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Holstein Kiel
0-5-5 (W-D-L)
Dynamo Dresden
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Holstein Kiel
4–1–1
Dynamo Dresden
(6 last)
- Dynamo Dresden2-1Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel2-1Dynamo Dresden
- Dynamo Dresden0-0Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel2-1Dynamo Dresden
- Holstein Kiel2-0Dynamo Dresden
- Dynamo Dresden1-2Holstein Kiel
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Holstein Kiel 1477 · Dynamo Dresden 1480
| Holstein Kiel | Draw | Dynamo Dresden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Holstein Kiel: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Holstein Kiel | Dynamo Dresden | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 6.3 | 3 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Holstein Kiel 4–1–1 Dynamo Dresden
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Germany Bundesliga II | Dynamo Dresden | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Holstein Kiel |
| 20/12/25 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Dynamo Dresden |
| 16/04/22 Germany Bundesliga II | Dynamo Dresden | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Holstein Kiel |
| 05/11/21 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Dynamo Dresden |
| 18/06/20 Germany Bundesliga II | Holstein Kiel | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dynamo Dresden |
| 30/11/19 Germany Bundesliga II | Dynamo Dresden | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Holstein Kiel |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga II
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha Berlin | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
| 2 | Nurnberg | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Wolfsburg | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 13 | 15 |
| 4 | Kaiserslautern | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Heidenheim | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| 6 | Magdeburg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 13 |
| 7 | St Pauli | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| 8 | Arminia Bielefeld | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 9 | Cottbus | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 9 |
| 10 | Greuther Furth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 9 |
| 11 | Dynamo Dresden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 11 | VfL Osnabruck | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 8 |
| 13 | Karlsruher SC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
| 14 | Hannover 96 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 13 | 8 |
| 15 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 7 |
| 16 | Bochum | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7 |
| 17 | Darmstadt | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 7 |
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 5 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Holstein Kiel | Dynamo Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha Berlin | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Eintracht Braunschweig | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| VfL Osnabruck | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Heidenheim | 0-1 L | 3-5 L |
| Nurnberg | 2-2 D | 0-3 L |
| Magdeburg | 0-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Darmstadt | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 4 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Holstein Kiel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10 | Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 19/09 | VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 13/09 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 30/08 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 14/08 | St Pauli Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Dynamo Dresden Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 4 | L |
Dynamo Dresden
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Magdeburg Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | VfL Osnabruck Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 19/09 | Hertha Berlin Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 05/09 | Bochum Germany Bundesliga II |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 29/08 | Heidenheim Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 3-5 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Darmstadt Germany Bundesliga II |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Nurnberg Germany Bundesliga II |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Holstein Kiel Germany Bundesliga II |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Eintracht Braunschweig Germany Bundesliga II |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Holstein Kiel win (41%). Probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41%, draw 26%, Dynamo Dresden 33%.
How many goals are expected in Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Holstein Kiel 1.53 · Dynamo Dresden 1.35), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.