Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 29/07, 00:00
Prediction: San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.96Total
San Lorenzo1.16
Gimnasia Mendoza0.8
1X2
San Lorenzo
Draw
Gimnasia Mendoza
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
San Lorenzo
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Gimnasia Mendoza
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Lorenzo
1–0
Gimnasia Mendoza
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Lorenzo 1476 · Gimnasia Mendoza 1499
| San Lorenzo | Draw | Gimnasia Mendoza | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 33% | 24% |
| Market | 43% | 32% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.96 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Lorenzo | Gimnasia Mendoza | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.7 | 1.7 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo 1–0–0 Gimnasia Mendoza
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Gimnasia Mendoza | 0-1 HT 0-0 | San Lorenzo |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Central Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Independiente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lanus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Platense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Defensa y Justicia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Deportivo Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Estudiantes LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Newell's | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Union Santa Fe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Lorenzo | Gimnasia Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Riestra | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Platense | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Velez Sarsfield | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 14 | 7 | D |
| 27/05 | Deportivo Recoleta Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 21/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 11/05 | River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | CA Independiente Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 29/04 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/04 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 17/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Gimnasia Mendoza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 21/04 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 15/04 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 03/04 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 18/03 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 12/03 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 28/02 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Lorenzo win (43%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo 43%, draw 33%, Gimnasia Mendoza 24%.
How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The model expects 1.96 goals (San Lorenzo 1.16 · Gimnasia Mendoza 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia Mendoza?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.