Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 29/07, 00:00

Prediction: Banfield vs Sarmiento

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.99Total

Banfield1.18

Sarmiento0.81

1X2

44% 33% 24%

Banfield Draw Sarmiento

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Banfield 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Sarmiento 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Banfield 0–5–1 Sarmiento (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banfield 1484 · Sarmiento 1484

	Banfield	Draw	Sarmiento
Our model	43%	33%	24%
Market	44%	32%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banfield	Sarmiento
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	1 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +2’	2.15	2.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Banfield 0–5–1 Sarmiento

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	1-0 HT 1-0	Banfield
14/12/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Banfield	1-1 HT 0-0	Sarmiento
29/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	0-0 HT 0-0	Banfield
23/10/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Banfield	0-0 HT 0-0	Sarmiento
17/02/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	2-2 HT 0-1	Banfield
24/11/21 Argentina Liga Profesional	Sarmiento	0-0 HT 0-0	Banfield

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atlético Tucumán	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aldosivi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barracas Central	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Belgrano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Huracan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	River Plate	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rosario Central	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sarmiento	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CA Tigre	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gimnasia LP	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Independiente Rivadavia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Club	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banfield	Sarmiento
Barracas Central	2-1 W	2-1 W
CA Tigre	1-0 W	1-0 W
Rosario Central	1-2 L	1-2 L
Gimnasia LP	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Banfield

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/05	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Cup	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
02/05	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
27/04	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
20/04	Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
14/04	Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
07/04	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-2	2-3	1	3	L
26/03	Real Pilar Argentina Cup	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
21/03	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/03	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
11/03	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	1-2	8	9	L

Sarmiento

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Boca Juniors Argentina Cup	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
03/05	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	0-2	0-4	2	2	L
26/04	CA Tigre Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	8	W
20/04	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
13/04	Gimnasia LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
09/04	Tristan Suarez Argentina Cup	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
02/04	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
22/03	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
15/03	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
11/03	Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banfield vs Sarmiento?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banfield win (44%). Probabilities: Banfield 44%, draw 33%, Sarmiento 24%.

How many goals are expected in Banfield vs Sarmiento?

The model expects 1.99 goals (Banfield 1.18 · Sarmiento 0.81), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Banfield vs Sarmiento?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.