Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 31/07, 02:15
Prediction: CA Independiente vs Newell's
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.56Total
CA Independiente1.69
Newell's0.88
1X2
CA Independiente
Draw
Newell's
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Newell's
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente
2–1–3
Newell's
(6 last)
- Newell's1-1CA Independiente
- Newell's2-1CA Independiente
- CA Independiente0-2Newell's
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1530 · Newell's 1496
| CA Independiente | Draw | Newell's | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Newell's: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente | Newell's | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5 | 1.9 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 2–1–3 Newell's
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-1 HT 0-1 | CA Independiente |
| 26/11/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 2-1 HT 1-0 | CA Independiente |
| 12/07/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Newell's |
| 25/09/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Newell's |
| 31/10/21 Argentina Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 05/03/21 Argentina Copa de la Liga Profesional | Newell's | 1-2 HT 0-2 | CA Independiente |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Platense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Union Santa Fe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | CA Independiente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Lanus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Estudiantes LP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Newell's | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente | Newell's |
|---|---|---|
| Union Santa Fe | 2-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Rosario Central | 1-3 L | 0-2 L |
| San Lorenzo | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Instituto AC Cordoba | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Independiente (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/03 | Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas Argentina Cup |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 22/03 | CA Talleres de Córdoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 17/03 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
Newell's
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05 | Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 18/04 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 06/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 30/03 | Acassuso Argentina Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 21/03 | Gimnasia Mendoza Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 17/03 | Lanus Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 11/03 | Platense Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 01/03 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs Newell's?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente win (55%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 55%, draw 27%, Newell's 18%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs Newell's?
The model expects 2.56 goals (CA Independiente 1.69 · Newell's 0.88), with a 59% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs Newell's?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.