Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 09/08, 22:00
Prediction: CA Independiente vs Platense
Team pages: CA Independiente · Platense
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
CA Independiente1.73
Platense0.78
1X2
CA Independiente
Draw
Platense
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
CA Independiente
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Platense
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CA Independiente
2–2–2
Platense
(6 last)
- Platense0-1CA Independiente
- CA Independiente3-0Platense
- Platense1-1CA Independiente
- Platense0-0CA Independiente
- CA Independiente1-2Platense
- CA Independiente1-3Platense
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CA Independiente 1566 · Platense 1453
| CA Independiente | Draw | Platense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 28% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Independiente (rating 1566 vs 1453).
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CA Independiente | Platense | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 1.9 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 5.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente 2–2–2 Platense
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/26 Argentina Liga Profesional | Platense | 0-1 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 24/10/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Platense |
| 17/02/25 Argentina Liga Profesional | Platense | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 19/05/24 Argentina Liga Profesional | Platense | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CA Independiente |
| 05/02/23 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Platense |
| 05/07/22 Argentina Liga Profesional | CA Independiente | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Platense |
Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | CA Independiente | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Defensa y Justicia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Deportivo Riestra | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Estudiantes LP | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Lanus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Instituto AC Cordoba | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Newell's | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| 12 | Union Santa Fe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 13 | CA Talleres de Córdoba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Boca Juniors | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Central Cordoba | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CA Independiente | Platense |
|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes LP | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Union Santa Fe | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| San Lorenzo | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CA Independiente (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CA Independiente
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Newell's Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 24/04 | Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/04 | Racing Club Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 27/03 | Sportivo y Biblioteca Atenas Argentina Cup |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
Platense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Instituto AC Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Union Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 20/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 13/05 | San Martin SJ Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | Penarol Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/04 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | San Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Central Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional |
1-2 | 3-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CA Independiente vs Platense?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente win (58%). Probabilities: CA Independiente 58%, draw 27%, Platense 15%.
How many goals are expected in CA Independiente vs Platense?
The model expects 2.51 goals (CA Independiente 1.73 · Platense 0.78), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in CA Independiente vs Platense?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.