Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 08/11, 16:00

Prediction: Winterthur II vs Locarno

Team pages: Winterthur II · Locarno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

Winterthur II1.6

Locarno1.14

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Winterthur II Draw Locarno

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Winterthur II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Locarno 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Winterthur II 1438 · Locarno 1484

	Winterthur II	Draw	Locarno
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Locarno (rating 1438 vs 1484).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Winterthur II	Locarno
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 7	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	5.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.85▼	Pinn 1.93
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.69
2	3.10 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.39 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:41 +99’	1.90	3.70	3.10
22:39 +14’	1.85▼	3.60▼	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +36’	1.88	3.78	3.32
20:59 +6’	1.91▲	3.63▼	3.34▲
14:00 +24’	1.93▲	3.69▲	3.39▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 1. Liga Classic 26/27, Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	St Gallen II	13	9	1	3	26	20	28
2	AC Taverne	13	8	3	2	31	15	27
3	FC Tuggen	12	7	3	2	27	15	24
4	FC Baden	13	7	2	4	32	20	23
5	FC Kosova	13	5	6	2	21	15	21
6	FC Collina d'Oro	13	6	3	4	15	14	21
7	FC Thalwil	13	5	4	4	19	19	19
8	FC Wettswil-Bonstetten	13	5	3	5	20	18	18
9	FC Freienbach	13	4	4	5	18	21	16
10	FC Dietikon	13	4	3	6	19	22	15
11	Gossau	13	4	2	7	17	28	14
12	USV Eschen-Mauren	12	3	3	6	19	26	12
13	FC Mendrisio	13	2	6	5	16	18	12
14	Locarno	12	2	5	5	12	15	11
15	Winterthur II	12	3	1	8	13	23	10
16	FC Widnau	13	2	3	8	12	28	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Winterthur II	Locarno
FC Dietikon	2-2 D	2-2 D
FC Tuggen	1-3 L	1-2 L
FC Widnau	0-1 L	0-0 D
FC Collina d'Oro	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Mendrisio	2-1 W	0-0 D
FC Kosova	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Locarno (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Winterthur II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Dietikon Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	FC Tuggen Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-3	–	–	L
17/10	USV Eschen-Mauren Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-4	–	–	L
09/10	FC Wettswil-Bonstetten Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-3	10	2	L
04/10	St Gallen II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
19/09	FC Freienbach Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	3-2	4	8	W
13/09	FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
05/09	FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
29/08	FC Mendrisio Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
22/08	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L

Locarno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Collina d'Oro Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/10	FC Mendrisio Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
10/10	FC Kosova Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	FC Thalwil Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	FC Baden Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	Gossau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	AC Taverne Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
05/09	FC Widnau Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
29/08	FC Dietikon Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	FC Tuggen Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Winterthur II vs Locarno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Winterthur II win (47%). Probabilities: Winterthur II 47%, draw 26%, Locarno 27%.

How many goals are expected in Winterthur II vs Locarno?

The model expects 2.74 goals (Winterthur II 1.6 · Locarno 1.14), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Winterthur II vs Locarno?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.