Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 14/11, 17:00

Prediction: Lancy FC vs USI Azzurri

Team pages: Lancy FC · USI Azzurri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Lancy FC1.68

USI Azzurri1.7

1X2

38% 24% 39%

Lancy FC Draw USI Azzurri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lancy FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWLWL

USI Azzurri 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancy FC 1474 · USI Azzurri 1593

	Lancy FC	Draw	USI Azzurri
Our model	37%	25%	38%
Market	38%	23%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours USI Azzurri (rating 1474 vs 1593).
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancy FC	USI Azzurri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	2.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	75/25/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.5	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.90

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +45’	2.35	3.90	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Classic · 1. Liga Classic 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Prishtina Bern	13	10	2	1	38	11	32
2	USI Azzurri	13	10	0	3	30	14	30
3	FC Portalban Gletterens	13	7	2	4	23	15	23
4	Servette II	13	6	4	3	25	24	22
5	Lausanne Sport II	13	5	5	3	22	15	20
6	FC Monthey	13	5	5	3	21	18	20
7	Sion II	13	5	4	4	17	18	19
8	CS Chênois	13	5	2	6	22	22	17
9	FC Oberwallis Naters	13	5	2	6	24	33	17
10	FC Coffrane	13	4	4	5	19	17	16
11	Lancy FC	13	5	1	7	22	23	16
12	La Chaux-de-Fonds	13	5	1	7	17	32	16
13	FC Echallens	13	4	3	6	20	28	15
14	Meyrin	13	4	2	7	21	22	14
15	Stade Payerne	13	3	2	8	21	31	11
16	Vevey-Sports	13	1	1	11	17	36	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancy FC	USI Azzurri
Meyrin	2-3 L	1-0 W
FC Echallens	2-0 W	6-1 W
FC Oberwallis Naters	1-2 L	3-1 W
La Chaux-de-Fonds	5-1 W	6-1 W
FC Monthey	2-1 W	2-1 W
FC Coffrane	0-1 L	2-1 W
Stade Payerne	1-3 L	2-1 W
CS Chênois	2-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: USI Azzurri (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lancy FC

WLLLLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Meyrin Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-2	2-3	12	9	L
31/10	FC Echallens Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
24/10	FC Oberwallis Naters Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	La Chaux-de-Fonds Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-0	5-1	2	2	W
03/10	FC Monthey Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	FC Coffrane Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	Stade Payerne Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-3	–	–	L
12/09	CS Chênois Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-4	–	–	L
06/09	Servette II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/08	Vevey-Sports Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-1	2-1	8	7	W

USI Azzurri

WWWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	FC Prishtina Bern Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
31/10	Lausanne Sport II Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/10	Meyrin Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
11/10	FC Echallens Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	6-1	–	–	W
03/10	FC Oberwallis Naters Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	3-1	–	–	W
27/09	La Chaux-de-Fonds Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	6-1	–	–	W
19/09	FC Monthey Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-1	–	–	W
13/09	FC Coffrane Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Stade Payerne Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	–	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	CS Chênois Switzerland 1.Liga Classic	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancy FC vs USI Azzurri?

According to our model, the most likely result is an USI Azzurri win (39%). Probabilities: Lancy FC 38%, draw 24%, USI Azzurri 39%.

How many goals are expected in Lancy FC vs USI Azzurri?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Lancy FC 1.68 · USI Azzurri 1.7), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancy FC vs USI Azzurri?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.