Football · Poland III Liga · 30/10, 18:00

Prediction: Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Moravia Morawica

Team pages: Podlasie Biala Podlaska · Moravia Morawica

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Podlasie Biala Podlaska1.76

Moravia Morawica0.9

1X2

57% 23% 19%

Podlasie Biala Podlaska Draw Moravia Morawica

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Moravia Morawica 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1439 · Moravia Morawica 1420

	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	Draw	Moravia Morawica
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	Moravia Morawica
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.7	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.3	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
07:58 +6’	1.53	4.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
5	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
6	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	28	33	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	Moravia Morawica
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0-2 L	2-3 L
Wieczysta Krakow II	2-1 W	0-1 L
Wisloka Debica	0-1 L	0-0 D
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	2-2 D
JKS Jaroslaw	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Moravia Morawica (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Podlasie Biala Podlaska

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
17/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	8	3	L
01/10	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-1	2-2	8	2	D
26/09	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	3	9	W
06/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
28/08	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Moravia Morawica

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
17/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
10/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/10	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
27/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-0	2-2	8	3	D
19/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	1	8	L
05/09	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	2	6	L
22/08	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Moravia Morawica?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Podlasie Biala Podlaska win (57%). Probabilities: Podlasie Biala Podlaska 57%, draw 23%, Moravia Morawica 19%.

How many goals are expected in Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Moravia Morawica?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Podlasie Biala Podlaska 1.76 · Moravia Morawica 0.9), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Podlasie Biala Podlaska vs Moravia Morawica?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.