Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 16:00

Prediction: Elana Torun vs Lipno Steszew

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Elana Torun1.69

Lipno Steszew1.44

1X2

43% 25% 32%

Elana Torun Draw Lipno Steszew

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Elana Torun 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLLLLW

Lipno Steszew 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLWWL

Head-to-head

Elana Torun 0–2–0 Lipno Steszew (2 last)

Elana Torun1-1Lipno Steszew
Lipno Steszew2-2Elana Torun

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elana Torun 1419 · Lipno Steszew 1530

	Elana Torun	Draw	Lipno Steszew
Our model	43%	26%	32%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lipno Steszew (rating 1419 vs 1530).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elana Torun	Lipno Steszew
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.8	1.1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.4	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +18’	2.10	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elana Torun 0–2–0 Lipno Steszew

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Poland III Liga	Elana Torun	1-1 HT 0-0	Lipno Steszew
20/09/25 Poland III Liga	Lipno Steszew	2-2 HT 2-0	Elana Torun

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elana Torun	Lipno Steszew
Notec Czarnkow	0-3 L	1-0 W
Unia Swarzedz	0-4 L	0-3 L
Pogon Szczecin II	0-4 L	1-0 W
Victoria Wrzesnia	2-3 L	3-1 W
Kluczevia Stargard	1-1 D	3-0 W
KTS-K Luzino	1-2 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lipno Steszew (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Elana Torun

DLDLLLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/07	Unia Wabrzezno Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
30/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
23/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-3	0-3	0	1	L
17/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	1	0	L
13/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
09/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	7	3	L
01/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	2	2	L
25/04	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
19/04	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
11/04	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	3	7	D

Lipno Steszew

DWWWLWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Unia Swarzedz Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
30/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	4-3	5	3	W
23/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
17/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
13/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
09/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
01/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
25/04	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
18/04	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
11/04	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	2	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elana Torun vs Lipno Steszew?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elana Torun win (43%). Probabilities: Elana Torun 43%, draw 25%, Lipno Steszew 32%.

How many goals are expected in Elana Torun vs Lipno Steszew?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Elana Torun 1.69 · Lipno Steszew 1.44), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Elana Torun vs Lipno Steszew?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.