Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: Blekitni Stargard vs Wda Swiecie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

Blekitni Stargard2.12

Wda Swiecie1.35

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Blekitni Stargard Draw Wda Swiecie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Blekitni Stargard 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLLDWDDWWW

Wda Swiecie 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLLLD

Head-to-head

Blekitni Stargard 0–4 Wda Swiecie (4 last)

Wda Swiecie3-2Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard1-2Wda Swiecie
Blekitni Stargard1-3Wda Swiecie
Wda Swiecie2-1Blekitni Stargard

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Blekitni Stargard 1514 · Wda Swiecie 1471

	Blekitni Stargard	Draw	Wda Swiecie
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blekitni Stargard (rating 1514 vs 1471).
H2H favours Wda Swiecie: 4-0-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Blekitni Stargard	Wda Swiecie
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.6 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.2	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +5’	1.67	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Blekitni Stargard 0–0–4 Wda Swiecie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	3-2 HT 1-1	Blekitni Stargard
27/09/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-2 HT 1-1	Wda Swiecie
19/04/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-3 HT 1-1	Wda Swiecie
21/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wda Swiecie	2-1 HT 0-0	Blekitni Stargard

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Blekitni Stargard	Wda Swiecie
Flota Swinoujscie	3-0 W	3-0 W
Tluchowia Tluchowo	4-1 W	1-2 L
Notec Czarnkow	1-1 D	1-3 L
Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal	3-0 W	1-1 D
Zawisza Bydgoszcz	2-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Blekitni Stargard

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	OKS Swit Skolwin Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-0	12	4	W
22/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	4	6	W
17/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	10	4	D
13/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
08/05	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	5	2	W
01/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
25/04	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-3	2-3	3	2	L
18/04	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
11/04	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	1-4	5	5	L

Wda Swiecie

LWDWWLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Olimpia Elblag Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-1	6	4	D
30/05	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	5	3	L
24/05	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-6	1-13	1	2	L
16/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
09/05	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	3-0	4	2	W
01/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
25/04	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
18/04	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
10/04	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-1	2-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Blekitni Stargard vs Wda Swiecie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Blekitni Stargard win (54%). Probabilities: Blekitni Stargard 54%, draw 23%, Wda Swiecie 23%.

How many goals are expected in Blekitni Stargard vs Wda Swiecie?

The model expects 3.47 goals (Blekitni Stargard 2.12 · Wda Swiecie 1.35), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Blekitni Stargard vs Wda Swiecie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.