Football · Poland III Liga · 31/07, 18:00

Prediction: Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Gedania Gdansk1.47

Notec Czarnkow1.82

1X2

30% 25% 45%

Gedania Gdansk Draw Notec Czarnkow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gedania Gdansk 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Notec Czarnkow 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Gedania Gdansk 2–1–1 Notec Czarnkow (4 last)

Notec Czarnkow0-3Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk1-5Notec Czarnkow
Notec Czarnkow1-2Gedania Gdansk
Gedania Gdansk1-1Notec Czarnkow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gedania Gdansk 1519 · Notec Czarnkow 1519

	Gedania Gdansk	Draw	Notec Czarnkow
Our model	30%	25%	45%
Market	30%	25%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gedania Gdansk: 2-1-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gedania Gdansk	Notec Czarnkow
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 2	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	2.5 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
05:38 +28’	3.00	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gedania Gdansk 2–1–1 Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/25 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	0-3 HT 0-3	Gedania Gdansk
14/09/24 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	1-5 HT 1-2	Notec Czarnkow
16/03/24 Poland III Liga	Notec Czarnkow	1-2 HT 0-0	Gedania Gdansk
23/08/23 Poland III Liga	Gedania Gdansk	1-1 HT 1-0	Notec Czarnkow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gedania Gdansk

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Czarni Pruszcz Gdanski Europe Friendlies	2-2	2-5	6	2	L
11/07	Olimpia Elblag Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-4	5	4	L
04/06	Czarni Pruszcz Gdanski Poland IV Liga	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
31/05	Powisle Dzierzgon Poland IV Liga	2-0	5-0	10	2	W
23/05	Bytovia Bytow Poland IV Liga	2-1	4-1	7	1	W
16/05	Jaguar Gdansk Poland IV Liga	2-1	4-2	1	3	W
09/05	Grom Nowy Staw Poland IV Liga	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
01/05	KP Starogard Gdanski Poland IV Liga	0-0	0-3	5	7	L
25/04	Stolem Gniewino Poland IV Liga	2-0	4-1	10	2	W
18/04	Anioly Garczegorze Poland IV Liga	3-1	5-1	3	3	W

Notec Czarnkow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	8	3	W
23/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	3-0	3-0	13	1	W
17/05	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
13/05	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
08/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
25/04	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
15/04	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Notec Czarnkow win (45%). Probabilities: Gedania Gdansk 30%, draw 25%, Notec Czarnkow 45%.

How many goals are expected in Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Gedania Gdansk 1.47 · Notec Czarnkow 1.82), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gedania Gdansk vs Notec Czarnkow?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.