Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 12:00

Prediction: Gedania Gdansk vs KKS 1925 Kalisz

Team pages: Gedania Gdansk · KKS 1925 Kalisz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Gedania Gdansk1.69

KKS 1925 Kalisz1.66

1X2

38% 25% 37%

Gedania Gdansk Draw KKS 1925 Kalisz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gedania Gdansk 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDWLDWDW

KKS 1925 Kalisz 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWLLLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gedania Gdansk 1497 · KKS 1925 Kalisz 1484

	Gedania Gdansk	Draw	KKS 1925 Kalisz
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gedania Gdansk	KKS 1925 Kalisz
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 4.4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +6’	2.38	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gedania Gdansk	KKS 1925 Kalisz
Lipno Steszew	2-1 W	0-1 L
Blekitni Stargard	2-2 D	0-5 L
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-2 W	1-1 D
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 D	3-3 D
Baltyk Koszalin	1-3 L	1-1 D
Polonia Sroda Wlkp	3-4 L	0-0 D
Lech Poznan II	2-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 4 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gedania Gdansk (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gedania Gdansk

LLLDWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
17/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	3	6	D
10/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	5	2	W
03/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
19/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
12/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-4	7	4	L
28/08	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-0	3-4	6	7	L
23/08	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L

KKS 1925 Kalisz

DWDDDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/10	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	0-3	2-4	3	2	L
03/10	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-4	0-5	4	2	L
27/09	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
19/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
05/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
29/08	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gedania Gdansk vs KKS 1925 Kalisz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gedania Gdansk win (38%). Probabilities: Gedania Gdansk 38%, draw 25%, KKS 1925 Kalisz 37%.

How many goals are expected in Gedania Gdansk vs KKS 1925 Kalisz?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Gedania Gdansk 1.69 · KKS 1925 Kalisz 1.66), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gedania Gdansk vs KKS 1925 Kalisz?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.