Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 13:00

Prediction: Unia Swarzedz vs Blekitni Stargard

Team pages: Unia Swarzedz · Blekitni Stargard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Unia Swarzedz1.59

Blekitni Stargard1.68

1X2

36% 25% 40%

Unia Swarzedz Draw Blekitni Stargard

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Unia Swarzedz 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWWDDW

Blekitni Stargard 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWLDW

Head-to-head

Unia Swarzedz 4–2–0 Blekitni Stargard (6 last)

Unia Swarzedz0-0Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard1-1Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz2-1Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard0-1Unia Swarzedz
Unia Swarzedz3-0Blekitni Stargard
Blekitni Stargard1-3Unia Swarzedz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unia Swarzedz 1503 · Blekitni Stargard 1537

	Unia Swarzedz	Draw	Blekitni Stargard
Our model	35%	25%	39%
Market	36%	24%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Unia Swarzedz: 4-2-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unia Swarzedz	Blekitni Stargard
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	2.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.3	3.5 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +5’	2.50	3.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unia Swarzedz 4–2–0 Blekitni Stargard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	0-0 HT 0-0	Blekitni Stargard
11/10/25 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-1 HT 1-1	Unia Swarzedz
15/03/25 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	2-1 HT 2-0	Blekitni Stargard
21/08/24 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	0-1 HT 0-0	Unia Swarzedz
16/03/24 Poland III Liga	Unia Swarzedz	3-0 HT 1-0	Blekitni Stargard
23/08/23 Poland III Liga	Blekitni Stargard	1-3 HT 0-2	Unia Swarzedz

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unia Swarzedz	Blekitni Stargard
Chemik Bydgoszcz	3-1 W	3-3 D
Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 D	1-1 D
Baltyk Koszalin	1-1 D	2-0 W
KSS Kotwica Kornik	7-0 W	2-4 L
Flota Swinoujscie	2-0 W	5-1 W
KTS-K Luzino	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Blekitni Stargard (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unia Swarzedz

LLDLLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
17/10	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
10/10	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
03/10	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-0	7-0	6	3	W
26/09	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
19/09	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
11/09	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-1	3-4	6	5	L
04/09	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
28/08	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
23/08	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Blekitni Stargard

WWLWDDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
17/10	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
10/10	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-2	3-4	16	6	L
03/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	4-0	5-0	1	2	W
26/09	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	3-2	3-3	1	2	D
19/09	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
12/09	Baltyk Koszalin Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
05/09	KSS Kotwica Kornik Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	8	5	L
29/08	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
23/08	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unia Swarzedz vs Blekitni Stargard?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Blekitni Stargard win (40%). Probabilities: Unia Swarzedz 36%, draw 25%, Blekitni Stargard 40%.

How many goals are expected in Unia Swarzedz vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Unia Swarzedz 1.59 · Blekitni Stargard 1.68), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Unia Swarzedz vs Blekitni Stargard?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.