Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lech Poznan II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Victoria Wrzesnia1.44

Lech Poznan II1.51

1X2

36% 26% 39%

Victoria Wrzesnia Draw Lech Poznan II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Victoria Wrzesnia 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLLWLW

Lech Poznan II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Victoria Wrzesnia 1–1–0 Lech Poznan II (2 last)

Lech Poznan II1-2Victoria Wrzesnia
Victoria Wrzesnia0-0Lech Poznan II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Victoria Wrzesnia 1515 · Lech Poznan II 1471

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Draw	Lech Poznan II
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Victoria Wrzesnia (rating 1515 vs 1471).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Victoria Wrzesnia	Lech Poznan II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.9 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:26 +12’	2.50	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Victoria Wrzesnia 1–1–0 Lech Poznan II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	1-2 HT 0-2	Victoria Wrzesnia
06/12/25 Poland III Liga	Victoria Wrzesnia	0-0 HT 0-0	Lech Poznan II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Victoria Wrzesnia	Lech Poznan II
Tluchowia Tluchowo	2-0 W	1-3 L
Pogon Szczecin II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Notec Czarnkow	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Victoria Wrzesnia (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Victoria Wrzesnia

DWWDWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Lech Poznan II Poland III Liga	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	1-3	7	3	L
16/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
13/05	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
09/05	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	0	2	L
01/05	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	3	2	W
25/04	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
12/04	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
04/04	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Lech Poznan II

WLWDWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
17/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-2	2-4	3	8	L
13/05	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	1-0	1-3	11	3	L
09/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
30/04	Wybrzeze Rewalskie Rewal Poland III Liga	3-0	6-2	3	1	W
25/04	Pogon Szczecin II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-2	3	9	D
19/04	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	2-0	3-1	4	0	W
15/04	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
10/04	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	3-2	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lech Poznan II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lech Poznan II win (39%). Probabilities: Victoria Wrzesnia 36%, draw 26%, Lech Poznan II 39%.

How many goals are expected in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lech Poznan II?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Victoria Wrzesnia 1.44 · Lech Poznan II 1.51), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Victoria Wrzesnia vs Lech Poznan II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.