Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 12:00

Prediction: Lech Poznan II vs Flota Swinoujscie

Team pages: Lech Poznan II · Flota Swinoujscie

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Lech Poznan II2.07

Flota Swinoujscie1.32

1X2

54% 23% 23%

Lech Poznan II Draw Flota Swinoujscie

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan II 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Flota Swinoujscie 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Lech Poznan II 4–0 Flota Swinoujscie (4 last)

Lech Poznan II3-1Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie1-2Lech Poznan II
Lech Poznan II3-1Flota Swinoujscie
Flota Swinoujscie2-5Lech Poznan II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lech Poznan II 1527 · Flota Swinoujscie 1425

	Lech Poznan II	Draw	Flota Swinoujscie
Our model	54%	23%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lech Poznan II (rating 1527 vs 1425).
H2H favours Lech Poznan II: 4-0-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan II	Flota Swinoujscie
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 7.9	2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +11’	1.67	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan II 4–0–0 Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	3-1 HT 2-0	Flota Swinoujscie
28/09/25 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	1-2 HT 1-2	Lech Poznan II
25/05/25 Poland III Liga	Lech Poznan II	3-1 HT 3-1	Flota Swinoujscie
02/11/24 Poland III Liga	Flota Swinoujscie	2-5 HT 1-5	Lech Poznan II

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan II	Flota Swinoujscie
Wda Swiecie	1-4 L	0-1 L
Elana Torun	0-0 D	0-1 L
Notec Czarnkow	2-1 W	0-3 L
Unia Swarzedz	1-1 D	0-2 L
Grom Nowy Staw	2-4 L	0-5 L
Gedania Gdansk	3-2 W	1-1 D
Lipno Steszew	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lech Poznan II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lech Poznan II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	6	3	W
18/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	1-2	2-3	5	7	L
14/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-2	1-4	13	7	L
10/10	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	3-0	4-2	10	2	W
19/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	11	1	D
12/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
29/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-0	2-4	8	4	L
23/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
19/08	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Flota Swinoujscie

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	2	6	D
18/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
09/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
03/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
26/09	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
19/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	0-5	0-5	4	5	L
12/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan II vs Flota Swinoujscie?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lech Poznan II win (54%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan II 54%, draw 23%, Flota Swinoujscie 23%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan II vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Lech Poznan II 2.07 · Flota Swinoujscie 1.32), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan II vs Flota Swinoujscie?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.