Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 17:00

Prediction: KSS Kotwica Kornik vs KTS-K Luzino

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.14

KTS-K Luzino2.14

1X2

19% 21% 60%

KSS Kotwica Kornik Draw KTS-K Luzino

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

KSS Kotwica Kornik 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWDWL

KTS-K Luzino 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWWWLWLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1575 · KTS-K Luzino 1525

	KSS Kotwica Kornik	Draw	KTS-K Luzino
Our model	19%	22%	59%
Market	20%	20%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KSS Kotwica Kornik (rating 1575 vs 1525).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KSS Kotwica Kornik	KTS-K Luzino
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 0.9	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.50

21.48

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.80

2 (-1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.50▼	Bet365 4.50
X	4.40 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:42 +3’	4.75	4.40	1.48
15:05 +7’	5.75▲	4.75▲	1.36▼
16:06 +9’	4.50▼	4.50▼	1.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

KSS Kotwica Kornik

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Unia Swarzedz Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-2	0	1	L
04/06	LKS Goluchow Poland IV Liga	2-1	5-3	6	2	W
21/03	Obra Koscian Poland IV Liga	1-1	1-1	8	5	D
18/10	Huragan Pobiedziska Poland IV Liga	0-0	1-0	2	10	W
11/10	Piast Kobylnica Poland IV Liga	3-1	5-1	4	2	W
27/09	Mieszko Gniezno Poland IV Liga	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
13/09	Kania Gostyn Poland IV Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
02/09	Polonia Golina Poland IV Liga	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
17/08	Wiara Lecha Poznan Poland IV Liga	3-1	5-1	7	5	W
15/08	Obra Koscian Poland IV Liga	3-0	3-0	1	5	W

KTS-K Luzino

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Arka Gdynia Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	1	5	L
10/07	Grom Nowy Staw Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-2	6	1	L
03/06	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
30/05	Kluczevia Stargard Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
23/05	Zawisza Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
17/05	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
13/05	Cartusia Kartuzy Poland III Liga	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
09/05	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	7	2	W
30/04	Pogon Nowe Skalmierzyce Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	5	5	W
25/04	Tluchowia Tluchowo Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs KTS-K Luzino?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KTS-K Luzino win (60%). Probabilities: KSS Kotwica Kornik 19%, draw 21%, KTS-K Luzino 60%.

How many goals are expected in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model expects 3.28 goals (KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.14 · KTS-K Luzino 2.14), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in KSS Kotwica Kornik vs KTS-K Luzino?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.