Football · Poland III Liga · 31/10, 13:00

Prediction: Kluczevia Stargard vs KSS Kotwica Kornik

Team pages: Kluczevia Stargard · KSS Kotwica Kornik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Kluczevia Stargard2.57

KSS Kotwica Kornik1.36

1X2

63% 19% 18%

Kluczevia Stargard Draw KSS Kotwica Kornik

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Kluczevia Stargard 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWLLWD

KSS Kotwica Kornik 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLDLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kluczevia Stargard 1521 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1448

	Kluczevia Stargard	Draw	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Our model	63%	19%	18%
Market	63%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kluczevia Stargard (rating 1521 vs 1448).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kluczevia Stargard	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1.6 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +16’	1.44	4.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Wislanie Jaskowice	15	7	3	5	23	16	24
5	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
6	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
7	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	15	4	2	9	29	35	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kluczevia Stargard	KSS Kotwica Kornik
Wda Swiecie	2-1 W	0-2 L
Elana Torun	2-1 W	1-3 L
Notec Czarnkow	1-3 L	1-1 D
Unia Swarzedz	2-0 W	0-7 L
Grom Nowy Staw	4-3 W	1-3 L
Gedania Gdansk	2-2 D	1-6 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Kluczevia Stargard (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kluczevia Stargard

DWWLWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Flota Swinoujscie Poland III Liga	2-0	2-2	4	6	D
17/10	KTS-K Luzino Poland III Liga	2-1	3-2	3	4	W
09/10	Polonia Sroda Wlkp Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
27/09	KKS 1925 Kalisz Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
12/09	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
05/09	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/08	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
23/08	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	2-1	4-3	–	–	W
19/08	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	0-2	2-2	–	–	D

KSS Kotwica Kornik

LWWWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Wda Swiecie Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
17/10	Elana Torun Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	2	2	L
10/10	Notec Czarnkow Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Unia Swarzedz Poland III Liga	0-2	0-7	8	3	L
26/09	Grom Nowy Staw Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	1	3	L
19/09	Gedania Gdansk Poland III Liga	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
12/09	Lipno Steszew Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	3	1	W
05/09	Blekitni Stargard Poland III Liga	2-2	4-2	4	5	W
28/08	Chemik Bydgoszcz Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
22/08	Victoria Wrzesnia Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kluczevia Stargard vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kluczevia Stargard win (63%). Probabilities: Kluczevia Stargard 63%, draw 19%, KSS Kotwica Kornik 18%.

How many goals are expected in Kluczevia Stargard vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Kluczevia Stargard 2.57 · KSS Kotwica Kornik 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kluczevia Stargard vs KSS Kotwica Kornik?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.