Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: Basel II vs Lucerne II

Team pages: Basel II · Lucerne II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.82Total

Basel II2.15

Lucerne II1.67

1X2

48% 22% 30%

Basel II Draw Lucerne II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Basel II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Lucerne II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Basel II 2–2–2 Lucerne II (6 last)

Basel II3-2Lucerne II
Lucerne II1-1Basel II
Lucerne II2-2Basel II
Basel II1-3Lucerne II
Basel II5-1Lucerne II
Lucerne II4-1Basel II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Basel II 1486 · Lucerne II 1438

	Basel II	Draw	Lucerne II
Our model	48%	22%	30%
Market	49%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Basel II (rating 1486 vs 1438).
High corners: 15 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Basel II	Lucerne II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 9.3	3.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X4.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.88
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.15 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:45 +2’	1.85	4.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:42 +185’	1.88	4.09	3.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Basel II 2–2–2 Lucerne II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/02/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	3-2 HT 3-0	Lucerne II
06/08/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	1-1 HT 1-1	Basel II
15/02/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	2-2 HT 2-1	Basel II
10/08/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	1-3	Lucerne II
17/02/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	5-1 HT 2-1	Lucerne II
12/08/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lucerne II	4-1	Basel II

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	9	7	1	1	21	9	22
2	FC Schaffhausen	9	6	1	2	15	10	19
3	SC Cham	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
4	FC Grand-Saconnex	9	6	0	3	19	13	18
5	FC Bulle	9	5	2	2	18	12	17
6	FC Paradiso	9	5	1	3	19	9	16
7	YF Juventus	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
8	FC Amical Saint-Prex	9	4	1	4	13	20	13
9	Basel II	9	4	0	5	16	17	12
10	SC Bruhl	9	3	2	4	12	12	11
11	Breitenrain	9	3	2	4	12	15	11
12	Young Boys II	9	3	2	4	17	21	11
13	FC Zurich II	9	3	2	4	14	18	11
14	FC Kreuzlingen	9	2	3	4	10	13	9
15	Lugano II	9	3	0	6	15	21	9
16	Bavois	9	2	2	5	10	11	8
17	Lucerne II	9	2	1	6	13	16	7
18	AC Bellinzona	9	1	2	6	7	18	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Basel II	Lucerne II
Young Boys II	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Bulle	1-2 L	2-3 L
Lugano II	0-3 L	3-4 L
SC Bruhl	3-0 W	0-2 L
YF Juventus	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Basel II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-0	2-0	11	5	W
19/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
13/09	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-2	0-3	10	9	L
05/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	3-0	10	4	W
29/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/08	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
08/08	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-3	–	–	L
30/05	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L

Lucerne II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
20/09	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
12/09	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/09	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-2	2-2	10	7	D
22/08	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-4	–	–	L
08/08	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L
01/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W
30/05	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-1	2-3	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Basel II vs Lucerne II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Basel II win (48%). Probabilities: Basel II 48%, draw 22%, Lucerne II 30%.

How many goals are expected in Basel II vs Lucerne II?

The model expects 3.82 goals (Basel II 2.15 · Lucerne II 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Basel II vs Lucerne II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.