Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Paradiso vs Lugano II

Team pages: FC Paradiso · Lugano II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

FC Paradiso2.14

Lugano II1.24

1X2

57% 22% 21%

FC Paradiso Draw Lugano II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Paradiso 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWWLW

Lugano II 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

FC Paradiso 2–3–1 Lugano II (6 last)

FC Paradiso1-1Lugano II
Lugano II2-2FC Paradiso
Lugano II1-1FC Paradiso
FC Paradiso2-1Lugano II
FC Paradiso1-0Lugano II
Lugano II2-1FC Paradiso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Paradiso 1551 · Lugano II 1449

	FC Paradiso	Draw	Lugano II
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Paradiso (rating 1551 vs 1449).
H2H favours FC Paradiso: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Paradiso	Lugano II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.9	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.6	1.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.2	1 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	7.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.41
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:54 +5’	1.57	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +166’	1.48	4.41	5.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Paradiso 2–3–1 Lugano II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Paradiso	1-1 HT 0-1	Lugano II
04/10/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lugano II	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Paradiso
26/04/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lugano II	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Paradiso
30/11/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Paradiso	2-1 HT 1-1	Lugano II
09/03/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	FC Paradiso	1-0 HT 1-0	Lugano II
02/09/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Lugano II	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Paradiso

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	9	7	1	1	21	9	22
2	FC Schaffhausen	9	6	1	2	15	10	19
3	SC Cham	9	6	1	2	14	9	19
4	FC Grand-Saconnex	9	6	0	3	19	13	18
5	FC Bulle	9	5	2	2	18	12	17
6	FC Paradiso	9	5	1	3	19	9	16
7	YF Juventus	9	4	1	4	13	14	13
8	FC Amical Saint-Prex	9	4	1	4	13	20	13
9	Basel II	9	4	0	5	16	17	12
10	SC Bruhl	9	3	2	4	12	12	11
11	Breitenrain	9	3	2	4	12	15	11
12	Young Boys II	9	3	2	4	17	21	11
13	FC Zurich II	9	3	2	4	14	18	11
14	FC Kreuzlingen	9	2	3	4	10	13	9
15	Lugano II	9	3	0	6	15	21	9
16	Bavois	9	2	2	5	10	11	8
17	Lucerne II	9	2	1	6	13	16	7
18	AC Bellinzona	9	1	2	6	7	18	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Paradiso	Lugano II
FC Kreuzlingen	1-1 D	1-1 D
SC Cham	2-0 W	0-1 L
FC Schaffhausen	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Paradiso (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Paradiso

WLWLDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
19/09	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
13/09	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-1	2	5	W
05/09	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-0	4-0	4	3	W
29/08	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-2	5-2	4	5	W
22/08	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	1-2	8	2	L
08/08	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W
02/08	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	Vevey-Sports Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-0	–	–	W

Lugano II

DLLWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	SC Cham Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
19/09	FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
13/09	Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-0	3-0	2	9	W
05/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/08	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	3-1	3-2	2	8	W
23/08	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-5	–	–	L
15/08	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-3	–	–	W
09/08	Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/08	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/05	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Paradiso vs Lugano II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Paradiso win (57%). Probabilities: FC Paradiso 57%, draw 22%, Lugano II 21%.

How many goals are expected in FC Paradiso vs Lugano II?

The model expects 3.39 goals (FC Paradiso 2.14 · Lugano II 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Paradiso vs Lugano II?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.