Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Young Boys II vs Basel II

Team pages: Young Boys II · Basel II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

Young Boys II1.93

Basel II1.83

1X2

41% 23% 36%

Young Boys II Draw Basel II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Young Boys II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDWWD

Basel II 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWLL

Head-to-head

Young Boys II 0–3–3 Basel II (6 last)

Basel II1-0Young Boys II
Young Boys II0-0Basel II
Basel II1-1Young Boys II
Young Boys II1-2Basel II
Basel II2-0Young Boys II
Young Boys II2-2Basel II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Young Boys II 1473 · Basel II 1489

	Young Boys II	Draw	Basel II
Our model	41%	23%	36%
Market	41%	23%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Basel II: 3-3-0.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Young Boys II	Basel II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.4	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.5	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	0/67/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	3.7 / 8.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	6.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.90

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +25’	2.20	3.90	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:26 +8’	2.32	3.71	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Young Boys II 0–3–3 Basel II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	1-0	Young Boys II
06/09/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Young Boys II	0-0	Basel II
12/04/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	1-1	Young Boys II
04/12/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Young Boys II	1-2	Basel II
02/03/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Basel II	2-0	Young Boys II
26/08/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	Young Boys II	2-2	Basel II

Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Biel Bienne	8	6	1	1	19	9	19
2	FC Bulle	8	5	2	1	18	11	17
3	FC Schaffhausen	8	5	1	2	14	10	16
4	SC Cham	8	5	1	2	13	9	16
5	FC Grand-Saconnex	8	5	0	3	17	12	15
6	FC Paradiso	8	4	1	3	17	9	13
7	YF Juventus	8	4	0	4	12	13	12
8	SC Bruhl	8	3	2	3	12	10	11
9	Young Boys II	8	3	2	3	17	19	11
10	FC Zurich II	8	3	2	3	13	16	11
11	Breitenrain	8	3	1	4	10	13	10
12	FC Amical Saint-Prex	8	3	1	4	10	18	10
13	Basel II	8	3	0	5	14	17	9
14	Lugano II	8	3	0	5	15	20	9
15	Bavois	8	2	2	4	10	9	8
16	FC Kreuzlingen	8	2	2	4	9	12	8
17	Lucerne II	8	2	1	5	11	13	7
18	AC Bellinzona	8	1	1	6	5	16	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Young Boys II	Basel II
FC Bulle	0-3 L	1-2 L
Lugano II	3-1 W	0-3 L
SC Bruhl	2-4 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Basel II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Young Boys II

LLLWLLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/09	Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	4-2	–	–	W
30/08	Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	2-1	2-2	1	7	D
26/08	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-3	–	–	L
19/08	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-3	2-4	4	4	L
09/08	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	3-1	8	4	W
31/07	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-4	–	–	L
30/05	Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-1	0-3	3	0	L
23/05	Kriens Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-2	–	–	L

Basel II

WLLLWLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
13/09	Lugano II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-2	0-3	10	9	L
05/09	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	0-0	3-0	10	4	W
29/08	YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	2-3	–	–	L
18/08	AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-2	–	–	W
08/08	FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-2	–	–	L
01/08	FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	1-3	–	–	L
30/05	SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	Vevey-Sports Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Young Boys II vs Basel II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Young Boys II win (41%). Probabilities: Young Boys II 41%, draw 23%, Basel II 36%.

How many goals are expected in Young Boys II vs Basel II?

The model expects 3.76 goals (Young Boys II 1.93 · Basel II 1.83), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Young Boys II vs Basel II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.