Football · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion · 26/09, 17:30
Prediction: Lugano II vs SC Cham
Team pages: Lugano II · SC Cham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
Lugano II1.44
SC Cham2.02
1X2
Lugano II
Draw
SC Cham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Lugano II
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
SC Cham
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lugano II
2–4
SC Cham
(6 last)
- Lugano II0-3SC Cham
- SC Cham6-0Lugano II
- SC Cham1-0Lugano II
- Lugano II3-1SC Cham
- Lugano II3-2SC Cham
- SC Cham5-1Lugano II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lugano II 1454 · SC Cham 1541
| Lugano II | Draw | SC Cham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 26% | 24% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Cham (rating 1454 vs 1541).
- H2H favours SC Cham: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lugano II | SC Cham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2.3 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/33/0% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.3 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.3 | 3.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugano II 2–0–4 SC Cham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion | Lugano II | 0-3 HT 0-3 | SC Cham |
| 02/08/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion | SC Cham | 6-0 | Lugano II |
| 09/04/25 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion | SC Cham | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Lugano II |
| 05/10/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion | Lugano II | 3-1 HT 2-0 | SC Cham |
| 30/03/24 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion | Lugano II | 3-2 HT 1-2 | SC Cham |
| 23/09/23 Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion | SC Cham | 5-1 | Lugano II |
Standings · Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel Bienne | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | FC Bulle | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | FC Schaffhausen | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
| 4 | SC Cham | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Grand-Saconnex | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Paradiso | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 13 |
| 7 | YF Juventus | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
| 8 | SC Bruhl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 11 |
| 9 | Young Boys II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 19 | 11 |
| 10 | FC Zurich II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
| 11 | Breitenrain | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Amical Saint-Prex | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 10 |
| 13 | Basel II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 9 |
| 14 | Lugano II | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 20 | 9 |
| 15 | Bavois | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| 16 | FC Kreuzlingen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
| 17 | Lucerne II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 18 | AC Bellinzona | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 4 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lugano II | SC Cham |
|---|---|---|
| Bavois | 3-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Biel Bienne | 2-5 L | 3-2 W |
| FC Kreuzlingen | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: SC Cham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lugano II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | FC Schaffhausen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/09 | Basel II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 05/09 | FC Amical Saint-Prex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/08 | Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
3-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Lucerne II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 09/08 | Young Boys II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FC Bulle Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 30/05 | FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Lausanne Sport II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
SC Cham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | SC Bruhl Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | YF Juventus Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 05/09 | FC Zurich II Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | AC Bellinzona Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/08 | FC Grand-Saconnex Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/08 | FC Kreuzlingen Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | FC Paradiso Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 01/08 | Breitenrain Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | Biel Bienne Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Bavois Switzerland 1.Liga Promotion |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lugano II vs SC Cham?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SC Cham win (50%). Probabilities: Lugano II 26%, draw 24%, SC Cham 50%.
How many goals are expected in Lugano II vs SC Cham?
The model expects 3.46 goals (Lugano II 1.44 · SC Cham 2.02), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lugano II vs SC Cham?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.