Football · Poland III Liga · 30/10, 18:30

Prediction: Star Starachowice vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Team pages: Star Starachowice · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Star Starachowice1.76

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1.38

1X2

46% 25% 30%

Star Starachowice Draw Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Star Starachowice 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLDWDLWW

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Star Starachowice 3–1 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow (4 last)

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow3-1Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-0Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow1-3Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice1-0Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Star Starachowice 1512 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1464

	Star Starachowice	Draw	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Our model	45%	25%	29%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Star Starachowice (rating 1512 vs 1464).
H2H favours Star Starachowice: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Star Starachowice	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.4	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	5.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.75

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +4’	1.95	3.75	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Star Starachowice 3–0–1 Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/05/26 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3-1 HT 2-1	Star Starachowice
15/11/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-0 HT 0-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
09/03/25 Poland III Liga	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	1-3 HT 1-2	Star Starachowice
17/08/24 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-0 HT 0-0	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chelmianka Chelm	14	10	4	0	22	6	34
2	KSZO Ostrowiec	14	8	5	1	26	11	29
3	Wisloka Debica	14	8	2	4	21	16	26
4	Naprzod Jedrzejow	14	7	3	4	30	27	24
5	Czarni Polaniec	14	7	3	4	20	18	24
6	Hetman Zamosc	14	6	5	3	26	22	23
7	Wislanie Jaskowice	14	6	3	5	21	15	21
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	22	21	20
9	Wisla Krakow II	14	5	4	5	18	19	19
10	JKS Jaroslaw	14	5	2	7	29	26	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	20	21	17
12	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	14	3	7	4	14	15	16
13	Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	14	17	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	28	33	14
15	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	20	32	14
16	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	14	3	4	7	11	20	13
17	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	14	3	2	9	14	26	11
18	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	15	26	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Star Starachowice	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	2-2 D	2-0 W
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	4-1 W	0-4 L
Wieczysta Krakow II	0-0 D	1-1 D
Wisloka Debica	2-3 L	1-2 L
Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0-0 D	0-1 L
JKS Jaroslaw	0-3 L	2-5 L
AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Star Starachowice

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
17/10	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	3	14	W
10/10	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
01/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-2	2	2	D
26/09	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	2-0	4-1	5	7	W
19/09	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
13/09	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	0-1	0-3	1	4	L
22/08	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D

Pogon Sokol Lubaczow

LWLWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
17/10	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
10/10	Wieczysta Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
02/10	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-1	1-2	6	6	L
26/09	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
19/09	JKS Jaroslaw Poland III Liga	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
12/09	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	6	9	W
05/09	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Hetman Zamosc Poland III Liga	1-0	4-2	–	–	W
23/08	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Star Starachowice vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Star Starachowice win (46%). Probabilities: Star Starachowice 46%, draw 25%, Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 30%.

How many goals are expected in Star Starachowice vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Star Starachowice 1.76 · Pogon Sokol Lubaczow 1.38), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Star Starachowice vs Pogon Sokol Lubaczow?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.