Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 17:30

Prediction: JKS Jaroslaw vs Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

JKS Jaroslaw1.6

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna1.33

1X2

43% 26% 31%

JKS Jaroslaw Draw Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

JKS Jaroslaw 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JKS Jaroslaw 1592 · Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 1553

	JKS Jaroslaw	Draw	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna
Our model	42%	27%	31%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JKS Jaroslaw	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.6	2.1 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0.1	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +73’	2.30	3.60	2.50
15:10 +3’	2.05▼	3.60	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

JKS Jaroslaw

WWWWWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Moravia Morawica Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-2	7	1	W
23/07	Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-2	4	3	L
17/07	Stal Mielec Europe Friendlies	0-0	2-2	3	0	D
11/06	Karpaty Krosno Poland IV Liga	0-1	3-1	4	2	W
30/05	Polonia Przemysl Poland IV Liga	3-0	3-1	6	1	W
15/05	KS Wiazownica Poland IV Liga	2-0	5-0	3	0	W
09/05	Czarni Jaslo Poland IV Liga	1-0	7-0	7	1	W
12/04	LKS Lowisko Poland IV Liga	3-0	7-0	12	1	W
15/11	Karpaty Krosno Poland IV Liga	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
06/09	LKS Lowisko Poland IV Liga	1-0	3-0	7	2	W

Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Czarni Polaniec Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	1	2	W
30/05	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/05	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
13/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
09/05	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
24/04	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
18/04	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
11/04	Stal Krasnik Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	3	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JKS Jaroslaw vs Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JKS Jaroslaw win (43%). Probabilities: JKS Jaroslaw 43%, draw 26%, Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 31%.

How many goals are expected in JKS Jaroslaw vs Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna?

The model expects 2.93 goals (JKS Jaroslaw 1.6 · Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna 1.33), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in JKS Jaroslaw vs Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.