Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 17:30

Prediction: Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Korona Kielce II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Naprzod Jedrzejow1.64

Korona Kielce II1.89

1X2

33% 24% 43%

Naprzod Jedrzejow Draw Korona Kielce II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Naprzod Jedrzejow 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Korona Kielce II 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Naprzod Jedrzejow 0–4 Korona Kielce II (4 last)

Korona Kielce II3-2Naprzod Jedrzejow
Korona Kielce II4-1Naprzod Jedrzejow
Naprzod Jedrzejow1-4Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II3-0Naprzod Jedrzejow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naprzod Jedrzejow 1440 · Korona Kielce II 1570

	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Draw	Korona Kielce II
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Korona Kielce II (rating 1440 vs 1570).
H2H favours Korona Kielce II: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Korona Kielce II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2.4 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	7.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +5’	2.75	3.70	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naprzod Jedrzejow 0–0–4 Korona Kielce II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Poland III Liga	Korona Kielce II	3-2 HT 1-1	Naprzod Jedrzejow
14/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Korona Kielce II	4-1 HT 2-1	Naprzod Jedrzejow
27/09/25 Poland III Liga	Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-4 HT 1-2	Korona Kielce II
23/07/25 Europe Friendlies	Korona Kielce II	3-0 HT 1-0	Naprzod Jedrzejow

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naprzod Jedrzejow	Korona Kielce II
Chelmianka Chelm	0-2 L	1-4 L
Wislanie Jaskowice	0-1 L	4-1 W
Star Starachowice	1-2 L	3-2 W
Wisla Krakow II	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Korona Kielce II (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naprzod Jedrzejow

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Stal Krasnik Poland III Liga	0-2	0-3	6	1	L
23/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
13/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
01/05	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-2	9	2	L
26/04	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
17/04	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-1	2-3	4	9	L
12/04	Sparta Kazimierza Wielka Poland III Liga	5-0	7-1	–	–	W
04/04	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	2-1	2-1	2	5	W

Korona Kielce II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
22/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-1	1-5	4	8	L
13/05	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
09/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-1	3-1	6	8	W
01/05	Wisla Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	1	9	W
25/04	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	1-3	1-4	–	–	L
17/04	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-1	3-2	6	9	W
11/04	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
02/04	Star Starachowice Poland III Liga	0-1	3-2	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Korona Kielce II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Korona Kielce II win (43%). Probabilities: Naprzod Jedrzejow 33%, draw 24%, Korona Kielce II 43%.

How many goals are expected in Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Korona Kielce II?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Naprzod Jedrzejow 1.64 · Korona Kielce II 1.89), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Naprzod Jedrzejow vs Korona Kielce II?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.