Football · Poland III Liga · 01/08, 12:00

Prediction: Wisla Krakow II vs Star Starachowice

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Wisla Krakow II1.97

Star Starachowice1.71

1X2

43% 24% 33%

Wisla Krakow II Draw Star Starachowice

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Wisla Krakow II 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLWWWW

Star Starachowice 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDLLLD

Head-to-head

Wisla Krakow II 3–1 Star Starachowice (4 last)

Wisla Krakow II3-0Star Starachowice
Star Starachowice4-2Wisla Krakow II
Star Starachowice1-4Wisla Krakow II
Wisla Krakow II3-1Star Starachowice

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wisla Krakow II 1533 · Star Starachowice 1451

	Wisla Krakow II	Draw	Star Starachowice
Our model	43%	23%	33%
Market	43%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wisla Krakow II (rating 1533 vs 1451).
H2H favours Wisla Krakow II: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wisla Krakow II	Star Starachowice
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	1.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +3’	2.10	3.60	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wisla Krakow II 3–0–1 Star Starachowice

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Poland III Liga	Wisla Krakow II	3-0 HT 2-0	Star Starachowice
30/08/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	4-2 HT 2-1	Wisla Krakow II
18/04/25 Poland III Liga	Star Starachowice	1-4 HT 1-2	Wisla Krakow II
21/09/24 Poland III Liga	Wisla Krakow II	3-1 HT 0-1	Star Starachowice

Standings · Poland III Liga

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AKS 1947 Busko-Zdroj	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chelmianka Chelm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Czarni Polaniec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hetman Zamosc	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	JKS Jaroslaw	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Korona Kielce II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	KSZO Ostrowiec	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Moravia Morawica	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Naprzod Jedrzejow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Podlasie Biala Podlaska	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Star Starachowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wieczysta Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisla Krakow II	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wislanie Jaskowice	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wisloka Debica	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wisla Krakow II	Star Starachowice
Podlasie Biala Podlaska	3-2 W	1-1 D
Pogon Sokol Lubaczow	3-1 W	1-3 L
KSZO Ostrowiec	3-4 L	0-6 L
Naprzod Jedrzejow	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Wisla Krakow II (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wisla Krakow II

LWWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
23/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-0	3-1	11	4	W
16/05	Siarka Tarnobrzeg Poland III Liga	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/05	Cracovia Krakow II Poland III Liga	0-1	3-1	4	8	W
09/05	KSZO Ostrowiec Poland III Liga	2-2	3-4	–	–	L
01/05	Korona Kielce II Poland III Liga	1-0	2-3	9	9	L
24/04	Wisloka Debica Poland III Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Swidniczanka Swidnik Poland III Liga	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
11/04	Wislanie Jaskowice Poland III Liga	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
04/04	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	5	5	L

Star Starachowice

WWLDLDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Moravia Morawica Europe Friendlies	2-1	2-2	9	3	D
01/07	KSZO Ostrowiec Europe Friendlies	0-4	0-6	8	0	L
27/06	Puszcza Niepolomice Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
29/05	Pogon Sokol Lubaczow Poland III Liga	1-2	1-3	8	3	L
23/05	Podlasie Biala Podlaska Poland III Liga	0-1	1-1	5	7	D
16/05	Czarni Polaniec Poland III Liga	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/05	Avia Swidnik Poland III Liga	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
09/05	Chelmianka Chelm Poland III Liga	0-2	2-5	–	–	L
01/05	Naprzod Jedrzejow Poland III Liga	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
24/04	Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna Poland III Liga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wisla Krakow II vs Star Starachowice?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wisla Krakow II win (43%). Probabilities: Wisla Krakow II 43%, draw 24%, Star Starachowice 33%.

How many goals are expected in Wisla Krakow II vs Star Starachowice?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Wisla Krakow II 1.97 · Star Starachowice 1.71), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow II vs Star Starachowice?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.