Football · Argentina Liga Profesional · 25/07, 00:00

Prediction: Racing Club vs Gimnasia LP

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Racing Club1.37

Gimnasia LP0.69

1X2

52% 30% 18%

Racing Club Draw Gimnasia LP

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Racing Club 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDDDLWDDWW

Gimnasia LP 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Racing Club 0–2–4 Gimnasia LP (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Racing Club 1523 · Gimnasia LP 1568

	Racing Club	Draw	Gimnasia LP
Our model	52%	30%	18%
Market	52%	30%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia LP (rating 1523 vs 1568).
H2H favours Gimnasia LP: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Racing Club	Gimnasia LP
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.8	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.5	5.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.81
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.35 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 5.9% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:24 +1’	1.80	3.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:25	1.81	3.35	4.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club 0–2–4 Gimnasia LP

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	2-1 HT 1-0	Racing Club
10/08/24 Argentina Liga Profesional	Racing Club	0-1 HT 0-1	Gimnasia LP
08/04/23 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	3-1 HT 1-0	Racing Club
21/06/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Gimnasia LP	3-1 HT 2-1	Racing Club
13/02/22 Argentina Liga Profesional	Racing Club	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia LP
24/07/21 Argentina Liga Profesional	Racing Club	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia LP

Standings · Argentina Liga Profesional · Primera LPF 2026, Clausura, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Argentinos Jrs	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atlético Tucumán	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Aldosivi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banfield	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barracas Central	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Belgrano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Huracan	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	River Plate	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rosario Central	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sarmiento	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CA Tigre	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gimnasia LP	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Independiente Rivadavia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Club	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Racing Club

DDDDLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Defensa y Justicia Argentina Cup	2-0	4-1	2	4	W
28/05	Independiente Petrolero Copa Sudamericana	1-0	2-0	9	3	W
22/05	Caracas Copa Sudamericana	2-1	2-2	5	4	D
13/05	Rosario Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
10/05	Estudiantes LP Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
07/05	Botafogo Copa Sudamericana	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
03/05	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
30/04	Caracas Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
25/04	Barracas Central Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
19/04	Aldosivi Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Gimnasia LP

LLWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/05	River Plate Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
11/05	Velez Sarsfield Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	0	8	W
03/05	Argentinos Jrs Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
26/04	Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/04	Acassuso Argentina Cup	0-0	3-0	5	4	W
18/04	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
13/04	Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
10/04	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Cup	2-1	4-1	4	3	W
05/04	Huracan Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-3	8	5	L
21/03	Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional	0-1	0-1	4	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Racing Club vs Gimnasia LP?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Racing Club win (52%). Probabilities: Racing Club 52%, draw 30%, Gimnasia LP 18%.

How many goals are expected in Racing Club vs Gimnasia LP?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Racing Club 1.37 · Gimnasia LP 0.69), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Racing Club vs Gimnasia LP?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.