Football · Finland Kolmonen · 04/08, 18:00

Prediction: VPV Pallo-Veikot vs KPV Akatemia

Team pages: VPV Pallo-Veikot · KPV Akatemia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.49Total

VPV Pallo-Veikot2.6

KPV Akatemia1.89

1X2

53% 19% 28%

VPV Pallo-Veikot Draw KPV Akatemia

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

VPV Pallo-Veikot 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLDWWLL

KPV Akatemia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWLWLLWL

Head-to-head

VPV Pallo-Veikot 1–5 KPV Akatemia (6 last)

KPV Akatemia2-1VPV Pallo-Veikot
VPV Pallo-Veikot1-3KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia2-0VPV Pallo-Veikot
KPV Akatemia0-3VPV Pallo-Veikot
VPV Pallo-Veikot0-2KPV Akatemia
KPV Akatemia4-1VPV Pallo-Veikot

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPV Pallo-Veikot 1480 · KPV Akatemia 1462

	VPV Pallo-Veikot	Draw	KPV Akatemia
Our model	53%	20%	28%
Market	53%	19%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.49 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KPV Akatemia: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPV Pallo-Veikot	KPV Akatemia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	2.6 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	1 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	22/22/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	1.4 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X4.75

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.95

Under 4.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +13’	1.70	4.75	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VPV Pallo-Veikot 1–0–5 KPV Akatemia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	2-1 HT 1-1	VPV Pallo-Veikot
16/07/25 Finland Kolmonen	VPV Pallo-Veikot	1-3 HT 1-0	KPV Akatemia
22/04/25 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	2-0 HT 1-0	VPV Pallo-Veikot
25/08/24 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	0-3 HT 0-3	VPV Pallo-Veikot
29/05/24 Finland Kolmonen	VPV Pallo-Veikot	0-2 HT 0-0	KPV Akatemia
07/08/23 Finland Kolmonen	KPV Akatemia	4-1 HT 2-0	VPV Pallo-Veikot

Standings · Finland Kolmonen · Kolmonen 2026, Western, Group 3

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VIFK	12	9	2	1	35	9	29
2	FC Kiisto	13	8	3	2	37	16	27
3	Virkia	12	6	2	4	23	18	20
4	FC Ylivieska	13	6	2	5	31	30	20
5	SIF	13	5	3	5	22	23	18
6	SJK-j	13	4	4	5	20	21	16
7	Sporting Kristina	12	4	3	5	15	16	15
8	VPV Pallo-Veikot	11	4	2	5	15	17	14
9	Nykarleby IK	12	3	4	5	16	30	13
10	LBK	13	4	0	9	18	35	12
11	KPV Akatemia	12	2	1	9	26	43	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPV Pallo-Veikot	KPV Akatemia
Virkia	1-0 W	2-4 L
SJK-j	2-0 W	3-6 L
SIF	1-1 D	2-3 L
FC Ylivieska	0-4 L	5-3 W
Nykarleby IK	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sääripotku	6-2 W	5-0 W
VIFK	1-2 L	1-7 L
FC Kiisto	0-2 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: VPV Pallo-Veikot (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPV Pallo-Veikot

LLWDLDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	LBK Finland Kolmonen	2-1	2-3	3	4	L
23/07	KPV Akatemia Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
16/07	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
02/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/06	SIF Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
17/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	0-1	0-4	0	3	L
11/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
04/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	6-2	–	–	W
27/05	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	1	2	L
19/05	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	0-0	0-2	2	0	L

KPV Akatemia

LDLWLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Virkia Finland Kolmonen	0-1	2-4	4	6	L
23/07	VPV Pallo-Veikot Finland Kolmonen	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
16/07	SJK-j Finland Kolmonen	1-3	3-6	2	2	L
01/07	SIF Finland Kolmonen	0-2	2-3	1	1	L
23/06	FC Ylivieska Finland Kolmonen	2-1	5-3	1	7	W
18/06	Nykarleby IK Finland Kolmonen	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
10/06	Sääripotku Finland Kolmonen	–	5-0	–	–	W
03/06	VIFK Finland Kolmonen	1-4	1-7	0	1	L
26/05	FC Kiisto Finland Kolmonen	3-0	4-4	3	3	D
20/05	Sporting Kristina Finland Kolmonen	0-1	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs KPV Akatemia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VPV Pallo-Veikot win (53%). Probabilities: VPV Pallo-Veikot 53%, draw 19%, KPV Akatemia 28%.

How many goals are expected in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs KPV Akatemia?

The model expects 4.49 goals (VPV Pallo-Veikot 2.6 · KPV Akatemia 1.89), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in VPV Pallo-Veikot vs KPV Akatemia?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.