Football · Denmark Division 2 · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: Middelfart vs FC Roskilde

Team pages: Middelfart · FC Roskilde

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Middelfart1.38

FC Roskilde1.4

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Middelfart Draw FC Roskilde

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Middelfart 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDDDWL

FC Roskilde 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDWDWW

Head-to-head

Middelfart 1–2–2 FC Roskilde (5 last)

FC Roskilde1-1Middelfart
FC Roskilde0-0Middelfart
Middelfart2-0FC Roskilde
FC Roskilde3-1Middelfart
Middelfart0-1FC Roskilde

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Middelfart 1525 · FC Roskilde 1594

	Middelfart	Draw	FC Roskilde
Our model	36%	28%	37%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Roskilde (rating 1525 vs 1594).
H2H favours FC Roskilde: 2-2-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Middelfart	FC Roskilde
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.64 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.43

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +6’	2.45	3.50	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +18’	2.64	3.32	2.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Middelfart 1–2–2 FC Roskilde

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	1-1 HT 1-1	Middelfart
18/05/24 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	0-0 HT 0-0	Middelfart
27/04/24 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Roskilde
09/03/24 Denmark Division 2	FC Roskilde	3-1 HT 0-0	Middelfart
07/10/23 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Roskilde

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	11	7	4	0	28	12	25
2	FC Roskilde	11	5	6	0	21	10	21
3	B93 Copenhagen	11	5	3	3	19	14	18
4	VSK Arhus	11	5	3	3	15	10	18
5	Middelfart	11	4	5	2	19	13	17
6	Naestved	11	3	7	1	15	13	16
7	Skive	11	4	2	5	13	15	14
8	Fremad Amager	11	3	5	3	13	16	14
9	Brabrand	11	3	3	5	13	18	12
10	Hellerup IK	11	2	3	6	9	19	9
11	FA 2000	11	1	3	7	11	23	6
12	Thisted FC	11	1	2	8	9	22	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Middelfart	FC Roskilde
B93 Copenhagen	1-3 L	2-1 W
FA 2000	1-0 W	5-1 W
VSK Arhus	1-1 D	1-0 W
Skive	0-0 D	3-0 W
Fremad Amager	1-1 D	1-1 D
Hellerup IK	2-1 W	1-1 D
Nykobing	2-3 L	2-2 D
Brabrand	4-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Roskilde (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Middelfart

WDLWDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
03/10	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
27/09	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	10	2	D
19/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
13/09	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
05/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
29/08	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	2-1	2-1	4	0	W
22/08	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-0	4-0	–	–	W

FC Roskilde

WDDDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-0	3-0	1	4	W
04/10	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
25/09	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	2-0	5-1	5	3	W
13/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	8	D
05/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
28/08	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	10	6	D
21/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/08	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Middelfart vs FC Roskilde?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Roskilde win (37%). Probabilities: Middelfart 36%, draw 27%, FC Roskilde 37%.

How many goals are expected in Middelfart vs FC Roskilde?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Middelfart 1.38 · FC Roskilde 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Middelfart vs FC Roskilde?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.