Football · Denmark Division 2 · 06/11, 19:00

Prediction: Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager

Team pages: Thisted FC · Fremad Amager

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Thisted FC1.21

Fremad Amager1.54

1X2

29% 26% 44%

Thisted FC Draw Fremad Amager

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Thisted FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLDDLL

Fremad Amager 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDWLLWLW

Head-to-head

Thisted FC 2–1–3 Fremad Amager (6 last)

Fremad Amager2-2Thisted FC
Fremad Amager2-0Thisted FC
Thisted FC2-1Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager3-0Thisted FC
Thisted FC1-3Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager0-1Thisted FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Thisted FC 1412 · Fremad Amager 1514

	Thisted FC	Draw	Fremad Amager
Our model	29%	27%	44%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fremad Amager (rating 1412 vs 1514).
H2H favours Fremad Amager: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Thisted FC	Fremad Amager
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.4	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	1.5 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.24 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:03 +2’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +2’	2.97	3.32	2.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Thisted FC 2–1–3 Fremad Amager

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/08/26 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	2-2 HT 1-1	Thisted FC
01/04/26 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	2-0 HT 0-0	Thisted FC
01/08/25 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Fremad Amager
12/04/25 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	3-0 HT 1-0	Thisted FC
22/09/24 Denmark Division 2	Thisted FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Fremad Amager
25/05/24 Denmark Division 2	Fremad Amager	0-1 HT 0-1	Thisted FC

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	14	9	4	1	37	16	31
2	FC Roskilde	14	6	8	0	28	13	26
3	B93 Copenhagen	14	6	3	5	25	20	21
4	Skive	14	6	3	5	22	19	21
5	Naestved	14	4	9	1	19	16	21
6	VSK Arhus	14	5	5	4	20	18	20
7	Fremad Amager	14	5	5	4	18	23	20
8	Middelfart	14	4	7	3	26	21	19
9	Brabrand	14	4	3	7	17	23	15
10	Hellerup IK	14	4	3	7	13	23	15
11	FA 2000	14	2	3	9	13	28	9
12	Thisted FC	14	1	3	10	12	30	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Thisted FC	Fremad Amager
B93 Copenhagen	1-3 L	0-3 L
Nykobing	0-3 L	3-2 W
Hellerup IK	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Roskilde	0-2 L	0-4 L
Brabrand	3-1 W	0-1 L
Naestved	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Thisted FC

DLLWLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	1	2	L
25/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-3	0-3	7	4	L
18/10	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
04/10	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
26/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
20/09	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-1	0	2	W
13/09	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	7	4	L
06/09	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-3	0-3	1	1	L
28/08	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	4	D

Fremad Amager

DDWDWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-1	2	2	W
23/10	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-4	3	6	L
16/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-2	6	6	W
10/10	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
02/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
26/09	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
18/09	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
11/09	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
05/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
28/08	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fremad Amager win (44%). Probabilities: Thisted FC 29%, draw 26%, Fremad Amager 44%.

How many goals are expected in Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Thisted FC 1.21 · Fremad Amager 1.54), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Thisted FC vs Fremad Amager?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.