Football · Denmark Division 2 · 07/11, 13:00

Prediction: Middelfart vs Naestved

Team pages: Middelfart · Naestved

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Middelfart1.53

Naestved1.51

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Middelfart Draw Naestved

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Middelfart 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDWLDDL

Naestved 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDDDDWDD

Head-to-head

Middelfart 3–1–2 Naestved (6 last)

Naestved2-2Middelfart
Middelfart3-0Naestved
Naestved0-1Middelfart
Middelfart0-1Naestved
Naestved0-2Middelfart
Middelfart1-2Naestved

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Middelfart 1497 · Naestved 1536

	Middelfart	Draw	Naestved
Our model	37%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Middelfart: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Middelfart	Naestved
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.8	1.7 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:00 +10’	2.40	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Middelfart 3–1–2 Naestved

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/26 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	2-2 HT 0-0	Middelfart
24/05/25 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	3-0 HT 0-0	Naestved
11/05/25 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	0-1 HT 0-0	Middelfart
16/11/24 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	0-1 HT 0-0	Naestved
22/09/24 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	0-2 HT 0-1	Middelfart
23/10/21 Denmark Division 2	Middelfart	1-2 HT 1-1	Naestved

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	14	9	4	1	37	16	31
2	FC Roskilde	14	6	8	0	28	13	26
3	B93 Copenhagen	14	6	3	5	25	20	21
4	Skive	14	6	3	5	22	19	21
5	Naestved	14	4	9	1	19	16	21
6	VSK Arhus	14	5	5	4	20	18	20
7	Fremad Amager	14	5	5	4	18	23	20
8	Middelfart	14	4	7	3	26	21	19
9	Brabrand	14	4	3	7	17	23	15
10	Hellerup IK	14	4	3	7	13	23	15
11	FA 2000	14	2	3	9	13	28	9
12	Thisted FC	14	1	3	10	12	30	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Middelfart	Naestved
Fremad Amager	1-2 L	1-1 D
Skive	3-3 D	2-1 W
FC Roskilde	3-3 D	0-0 D
B93 Copenhagen	1-3 L	2-1 W
FA 2000	1-0 W	1-1 D
VSK Arhus	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Naestved (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Middelfart

WDDDDWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
24/10	Skive Denmark Division 2	2-1	3-3	2	7	D
17/10	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-0	3-3	2	2	D
10/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	9	5	L
03/10	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
27/09	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	10	2	D
19/09	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
13/09	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	8	D
05/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
29/08	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	2-1	2-1	4	0	W

Naestved

WDWDDDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
24/10	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	2	2	D
18/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
04/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
30/08	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-0	2-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Middelfart vs Naestved?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Middelfart win (37%). Probabilities: Middelfart 37%, draw 26%, Naestved 37%.

How many goals are expected in Middelfart vs Naestved?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Middelfart 1.53 · Naestved 1.51), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Middelfart vs Naestved?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.