Football · Denmark Division 2 · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Naestved vs FA 2000

Team pages: Naestved · FA 2000

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Naestved1.87

FA 20001.03

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Naestved Draw FA 2000

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Naestved 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDWDDL

FA 2000 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLLWW

Head-to-head

Naestved 1–2–2 FA 2000 (5 last)

FA 20001-1Naestved
FA 20002-1Naestved
Naestved2-1FA 2000
Naestved0-0FA 2000
FA 20003-1Naestved

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Naestved 1512 · FA 2000 1454

	Naestved	Draw	FA 2000
Our model	56%	25%	20%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naestved (rating 1512 vs 1454).
H2H favours FA 2000: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Naestved	FA 2000
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	2.2 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.75

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +15’	1.60	3.75	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Naestved 1–2–2 FA 2000

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/26 Denmark Division 2	FA 2000	1-1 HT 0-1	Naestved
12/03/22 Denmark Division 2	FA 2000	2-1 HT 1-0	Naestved
03/10/21 Denmark Division 2	Naestved	2-1 HT 1-0	FA 2000
18/04/21 Denmark 2. Division Group 2	Naestved	0-0 HT 0-0	FA 2000
14/11/20 Denmark 2. Division Group 2	FA 2000	3-1 HT 1-0	Naestved

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nykobing	15	9	4	2	37	18	31
2	FC Roskilde	15	7	8	0	30	14	29
3	B93 Copenhagen	15	7	3	5	26	20	24
4	Middelfart	15	5	7	3	29	23	22
5	Skive	15	6	3	6	22	20	21
6	Naestved	15	4	9	2	21	19	21
7	Fremad Amager	15	5	6	4	18	23	21
8	VSK Arhus	15	5	5	5	20	19	20
9	Brabrand	15	5	3	7	19	23	18
10	Hellerup IK	15	4	3	8	14	25	15
11	FA 2000	15	3	3	9	14	28	12
12	Thisted FC	15	1	4	10	12	30	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Naestved	FA 2000
Middelfart	2-3 L	0-1 L
FC Roskilde	0-0 D	1-5 L
VSK Arhus	2-2 D	1-0 W
Nykobing	1-1 D	1-3 L
Fremad Amager	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Naestved (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Naestved

DWDDDDWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	2-3	2-3	5	3	L
31/10	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
24/10	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-1	2-2	4	6	D
16/10	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	FA 2000 Denmark Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/10	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	3	6	D
27/09	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	2-2	2	2	D
18/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Thisted FC Denmark Division 2	2-0	3-1	3	4	W
04/09	B93 Copenhagen Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	1	D

FA 2000

DLLLLDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	VSK Arhus Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
31/10	Brabrand Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
23/10	Hellerup IK Denmark Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
17/10	Skive Denmark Division 2	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
10/10	Naestved Denmark Division 2	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
03/10	Middelfart Denmark Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
26/09	Fremad Amager Denmark Division 2	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
18/09	FC Roskilde Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
13/09	Nykobing Denmark Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	1	L
05/09	Skive Denmark Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Naestved vs FA 2000?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Naestved win (56%). Probabilities: Naestved 56%, draw 24%, FA 2000 20%.

How many goals are expected in Naestved vs FA 2000?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Naestved 1.87 · FA 2000 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Naestved vs FA 2000?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.