Football · Denmark Division 2 · 14/11, 13:30

Prediction: VSK Arhus vs Middelfart

Team pages: VSK Arhus · Middelfart

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.18Total
VSK Arhus1.59
Middelfart1.59
1X2
37% 25% 37%
VSK Arhus Draw Middelfart
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
VSK Arhus 1-4-5 (W-D-L)
LDDWLLDDLL
Middelfart 2-6-2 (W-D-L)
DDDDWLDDLW
Head-to-head
VSK Arhus 1–1–4 Middelfart (6 last)
  • Middelfart1-1VSK Arhus
  • Middelfart3-0VSK Arhus
  • Middelfart2-1VSK Arhus
  • VSK Arhus1-2Middelfart
  • Middelfart0-1VSK Arhus
  • VSK Arhus1-2Middelfart
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VSK Arhus 1427 · Middelfart 1511
VSK ArhusDrawMiddelfart
Our model37%26%37%
Market38%25%38%
Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Middelfart (rating 1427 vs 1511).
  • H2H favours Middelfart: 4-1-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

VSK ArhusMiddelfart
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 1.81.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.80.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/40/40%40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.2 / 4.91.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.6 / 04.4 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · VSK Arhus 1–1–4 Middelfart

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DateHomeScoreAway
19/09/26
Denmark Division 2
Middelfart1-1
HT 1-0
VSK Arhus
18/07/26
Europe Friendlies
Middelfart3-0VSK Arhus
20/07/24
Europe Friendlies
Middelfart2-1
HT 1-0
VSK Arhus
27/05/23
Denmark Division 3
VSK Arhus1-2
HT 1-0
Middelfart
13/05/23
Denmark Division 3
Middelfart0-1
HT 0-0
VSK Arhus
18/03/23
Denmark Division 3
VSK Arhus1-2
HT 0-0
Middelfart

Standings · Denmark Division 2

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Nykobing 15942 371831
2 FC Roskilde 15780 301429
3 B93 Copenhagen 15735 262024
4 Middelfart 15573 292322
5 Skive 15636 222021
6 Naestved 15492 211921
7 Fremad Amager 15564 182321
8 VSK Arhus 15555 201920
9 Brabrand 15537 192318
10 Hellerup IK 15438 142515
11 FA 2000 15339 142812
12 Thisted FC 151410 12307

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentVSK ArhusMiddelfart
FA 2000 0-1 L 1-0 W
Skive 1-4 L 3-3 D
Naestved 2-2 D 3-2 W
B93 Copenhagen 2-2 D 1-3 L
FC Roskilde 0-1 L 3-3 D
Record vs common 0 W 2 D 3 L 2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Middelfart (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VSK Arhus

LDDWLLDDLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/11 FA 2000
Denmark Division 2
0-0 0-1 67 L
30/10 Skive
Denmark Division 2
1-3 1-4 53 L
24/10 Naestved
Denmark Division 2
1-0 2-2 26 D
18/10 Thisted FC
Denmark Division 2
1-1 2-2 –– D
11/10 Nykobing
Denmark Division 2
0-2 1-3 34 L
02/10 Brabrand
Denmark Division 2
0-1 0-2 73 L
26/09 Skive
Denmark Division 2
0-0 1-0 57 W
19/09 Middelfart
Denmark Division 2
0-1 1-1 93 D
13/09 B93 Copenhagen
Denmark Division 2
1-0 2-2 34 D
05/09 FC Roskilde
Denmark Division 2
0-0 0-1 44 L

Middelfart

DDDDWLDDLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
07/11 Naestved
Denmark Division 2
3-2 3-2 43 W
31/10 Fremad Amager
Denmark Division 2
1-0 1-2 52 L
24/10 Skive
Denmark Division 2
2-1 3-3 27 D
17/10 FC Roskilde
Denmark Division 2
0-0 3-3 22 D
10/10 B93 Copenhagen
Denmark Division 2
0-2 1-3 95 L
03/10 FA 2000
Denmark Division 2
0-0 1-0 67 W
27/09 Naestved
Denmark Division 2
0-0 2-2 102 D
19/09 VSK Arhus
Denmark Division 2
1-0 1-1 23 D
13/09 Skive
Denmark Division 2
0-0 0-0 28 D
05/09 Fremad Amager
Denmark Division 2
0-1 1-1 65 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VSK Arhus vs Middelfart?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VSK Arhus win (37%). Probabilities: VSK Arhus 37%, draw 25%, Middelfart 37%.

How many goals are expected in VSK Arhus vs Middelfart?

The model expects 3.18 goals (VSK Arhus 1.59 · Middelfart 1.59), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in VSK Arhus vs Middelfart?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.