Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 22/08, 16:30
Prediction: Ajax (W) vs PEC Zwolle (W)
Team pages: Ajax (W) · PEC Zwolle (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
Ajax (W)2.41
PEC Zwolle (W)0.66
1X2
Ajax (W)
Draw
PEC Zwolle (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax (W)
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
PEC Zwolle (W)
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax (W)
5–1
PEC Zwolle (W)
(6 last)
- Ajax (W)1-0PEC Zwolle (W)
- PEC Zwolle (W)7-1Ajax (W)
- PEC Zwolle (W)0-4Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)5-1PEC Zwolle (W)
- Ajax (W)3-2PEC Zwolle (W)
- PEC Zwolle (W)1-3Ajax (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax (W) 1601 · PEC Zwolle (W) 1439
| Ajax (W) | Draw | PEC Zwolle (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 17% | 8% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (W) (rating 1601 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Ajax (W): 5-0-1.
- High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax (W) | PEC Zwolle (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.2 / 7.7 | 2.8 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.3 | 2.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax (W) 5–0–1 PEC Zwolle (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | PEC Zwolle (W) |
| 23/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PEC Zwolle (W) | 7-1 HT 3-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 26/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PEC Zwolle (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Ajax (W) |
| 29/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 5-1 HT 2-1 | PEC Zwolle (W) |
| 23/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 3-2 HT 2-0 | PEC Zwolle (W) |
| 10/11/23 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | PEC Zwolle (W) | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Ajax (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Twente (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Feyenoord (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Ajax (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | De Graafschap (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 | Heerenveen (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | FC Utrecht (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ajax (W) | PEC Zwolle (W) |
|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht (W) | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Heerenveen (W) | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Excelsior (W) | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Feyenoord (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| PSV (W) | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| FC Twente (W) | 0-0 D | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Ajax (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | NAC (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 21 | 4 | W |
| 15/03 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 22/02 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
PEC Zwolle (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 29/03 | Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 22/02 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 15/02 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax (W) vs PEC Zwolle (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax (W) win (76%). Probabilities: Ajax (W) 76%, draw 16%, PEC Zwolle (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax (W) vs PEC Zwolle (W)?
The model expects 3.07 goals (Ajax (W) 2.41 · PEC Zwolle (W) 0.66), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax (W) vs PEC Zwolle (W)?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.