Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 16/08, 12:15
Prediction: FC Utrecht (W) vs Ajax (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
FC Utrecht (W)0.77
Ajax (W)2.38
1X2
FC Utrecht (W)
Draw
Ajax (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
FC Utrecht (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Ajax (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Utrecht (W)
0–1–5
Ajax (W)
(6 last)
- FC Utrecht (W)0-2Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)8-0FC Utrecht (W)
- FC Utrecht (W)1-1Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)1-0FC Utrecht (W)
- FC Utrecht (W)0-2Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)5-2FC Utrecht (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Utrecht (W) 1524 · Ajax (W) 1601
| FC Utrecht (W) | Draw | Ajax (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 18% | 72% |
| Market | 10% | 17% | 73% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ajax (W) (rating 1524 vs 1601).
- H2H favours Ajax (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Utrecht (W) | Ajax (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.5 | 2.7 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.2 / 0 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht (W) 0–1–5 Ajax (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | FC Utrecht (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 07/12/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 8-0 HT 6-0 | FC Utrecht (W) |
| 16/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | FC Utrecht (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Ajax (W) |
| 16/11/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Utrecht (W) |
| 10/03/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | FC Utrecht (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 05/11/23 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 5-2 HT 2-2 | FC Utrecht (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ajax (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | De Graafschap (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Twente (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Utrecht (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Feyenoord (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | PSV (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Heerenveen (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Utrecht (W) | Ajax (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen (W) | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Feyenoord (W) | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| PEC Zwolle (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| VV Alkmaar (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Excelsior (W) | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Ajax (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Utrecht (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Heerenveen (W) Women’s Friendly |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 22/05 | HERA United (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 08/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 03/05 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Twente (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 29/03 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 21/03 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/03 | Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/02 | NAC (W) Women’s Friendly |
1-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 0 | W |
Ajax (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Rangers (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/08 | Brondby (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | PSV (W) Netherlands Cup Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/05 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Cup Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht (W) vs Ajax (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ajax (W) win (73%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht (W) 10%, draw 17%, Ajax (W) 73%.
How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht (W) vs Ajax (W)?
The model expects 3.15 goals (FC Utrecht (W) 0.77 · Ajax (W) 2.38), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Utrecht (W) vs Ajax (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.