Football · Netherlands Eredivisie Women · 19/09, 16:30
Prediction: Ajax (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)
Team pages: Ajax (W) · VV Alkmaar (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Ajax (W)1.98
VV Alkmaar (W)0.64
1X2
Ajax (W)
Draw
VV Alkmaar (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax (W)
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
VV Alkmaar (W)
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax (W)
4–1–1
VV Alkmaar (W)
(6 last)
- Ajax (W)3-1VV Alkmaar (W)
- Ajax (W)1-2VV Alkmaar (W)
- VV Alkmaar (W)0-0Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)4-2VV Alkmaar (W)
- VV Alkmaar (W)1-2Ajax (W)
- Ajax (W)3-0VV Alkmaar (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax (W) 1544 · VV Alkmaar (W) 1530
| Ajax (W) | Draw | VV Alkmaar (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ajax (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax (W) | VV Alkmaar (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.2 | 1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 6.3 | 2.7 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0.2 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax (W) 4–1–1 VV Alkmaar (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 3-1 HT 0-0 | VV Alkmaar (W) |
| 12/12/25 Netherlands Cup Women | Ajax (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | VV Alkmaar (W) |
| 28/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | VV Alkmaar (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ajax (W) |
| 19/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 4-2 HT 4-0 | VV Alkmaar (W) |
| 06/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | VV Alkmaar (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Ajax (W) |
| 25/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie Women | Ajax (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | VV Alkmaar (W) |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | VV Alkmaar (W) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Ajax (W) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | PSV (W) | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 7 |
| 5 | ADO Den Haag (W) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 6 |
| 6 | De Graafschap (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 8 | Heerenveen (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 9 | Feyenoord (W) | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| 10 | FC Utrecht (W) | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ajax (W) | VV Alkmaar (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen (W) | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| FC Utrecht (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Excelsior (W) | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Feyenoord (W) | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| PSV (W) | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | De Graafschap (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 22/08 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/05 | VV Alkmaar (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 05/04 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 29/03 | PEC Zwolle (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
VV Alkmaar (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | PSV (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 22/05 | Excelsior (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 08/05 | Ajax (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Heerenveen (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-1 | 1-5 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | ADO Den Haag (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 05/04 | Feyenoord (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 29/03 | FC Utrecht (W) Netherlands Eredivisie Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax (W) win (69%). Probabilities: Ajax (W) 69%, draw 20%, VV Alkmaar (W) 11%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Ajax (W) 1.98 · VV Alkmaar (W) 0.64), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax (W) vs VV Alkmaar (W)?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.