Football · Czechia 3. Liga · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Zenit Caslav vs Varnsdorf

Team pages: Zenit Caslav · Varnsdorf

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Zenit Caslav1.51

Varnsdorf1.93

1X2

30% 23% 47%

Zenit Caslav Draw Varnsdorf

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Zenit Caslav 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Varnsdorf 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zenit Caslav 1488 · Varnsdorf 1474

	Zenit Caslav	Draw	Varnsdorf
Our model	30%	24%	47%
Market	30%	23%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zenit Caslav	Varnsdorf
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.3	2.8 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.85 → 1.91▲	Pinn 2.20 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:49 +8’	3.10	4.00	1.85
18:06 +22’	3.00▼	3.90▼	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +14’	2.68	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Unicov	14	10	2	2	31	17	32
2	SK Artis Brno B	14	8	5	1	23	7	29
3	Frydek Mistek	14	8	3	3	24	14	27
4	FC Brno II	14	8	3	3	31	23	27
5	Sigma Olomouc B	14	8	1	5	28	17	25
6	SK Hranice	14	7	2	5	18	13	23
7	TJ Unie Hlubina	14	6	3	5	31	28	21
8	CSK Uhersky Brod	14	6	3	5	24	23	21
9	MFK Vitkovice	14	5	4	5	17	17	19
10	Slovacko II	14	5	3	6	23	18	18
11	FC Trinity Zlin B	14	5	3	6	17	21	18
12	FK Hodonin	14	5	2	7	20	18	17
13	MFK Karvina B	14	5	2	7	22	24	17
14	SFK Vrchovina	14	5	2	7	15	28	17
15	MFK Havirov	14	2	5	7	12	23	11
16	FK Blansko	14	2	5	7	18	32	11
17	FC Vsetin	14	3	1	10	11	29	10
18	Polanka	14	2	3	9	12	25	9

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zenit Caslav	Varnsdorf
Slovan Liberec B	0-0 D	1-1 D
Mladá Boleslav B	0-4 L	1-1 D
FK Jablonec B	2-3 L	0-2 L
SK Sokol Zapy	3-2 W	4-4 D
Velke Hamry	2-1 W	3-1 W
FK Neratovice-Byskovice	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Horni Redice	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zenit Caslav (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zenit Caslav

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
24/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
18/10	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
11/10	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	3-2	0	1	W
04/10	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
26/09	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
20/09	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
12/09	MFK Chrudim Czechia 3. Liga	2-1	2-2	8	6	D
06/09	Benatky Nad Jizerou Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
30/08	Pardubice B Czechia 3. Liga	0-3	0-7	3	1	L

Varnsdorf

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	FK Horni Redice Czechia 3. Liga	0-0	1-3	6	5	L
25/10	SK Sokol Brozany Czechia 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	6	6	W
17/10	Banik Most-Sous Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/10	Hradec Kralove B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	2	W
07/10	Mladá Boleslav B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
04/10	Slovan Liberec B Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	1-1	15	6	D
20/09	FK Jablonec B Czechia 3. Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	SK Sokol Zapy Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	4-4	3	2	D
06/09	Velke Hamry Czechia 3. Liga	1-1	3-1	3	5	W
29/08	FK Neratovice-Byskovice Czechia 3. Liga	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zenit Caslav vs Varnsdorf?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Varnsdorf win (47%). Probabilities: Zenit Caslav 30%, draw 23%, Varnsdorf 47%.

How many goals are expected in Zenit Caslav vs Varnsdorf?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Zenit Caslav 1.51 · Varnsdorf 1.93), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Zenit Caslav vs Varnsdorf?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.